Now, playground kiddies come out of nowhere to accuse him of having run a robbery squad or a killer squad and who knows? Soon, he may be accused of having run a kidnapping squad as well. Politicians nurtured and raised to stardom by him now turn against him to exploit sentiments that they once fought against and call themselves accidental servants. Gladly for the former President however, the present government of Dr. Jonathan has succeeded in making several erstwhile die-hard haters see the difference between a clueless leader and a determined leader with a blueprint no matter how imperfect.

From the very beginning of President Jonathan’s tenure as Acting President, I have been crying out in vain to highlight the President’s abysmal talent in public communication. In one article in December 2011 “The self-created Problems of President Jonathan” I lamented his inability to follow up credible actions with robust rhetoric. Olusegun Obasanjo was not a gifted orator. He was a man who could get out of himself sometimes very ruthlessly and some other times, also in accommodating sophistication.

He would run mad if an interviewer dared to ask him the wrong question and throw his audience into endless laughter if the interviewer strikes the right nerve. He was feared for this attribute which made his temperament unpredictable. No one regarded Olusegun Obasanjo as dull, unintelligent or as “Mumu President” in spite of all the anger and hatred that the nation had for him. The bottom line was self-managed communication that may be regarded as a talent.

The pattern of communication shapes an individual and communication alone may make or mar any public venture exposed to the gaze of the masses. In one of his first off-script public comments as President, Goodluck Jonathan declared that he was not a military General and could not go on the rampage in the name of governance.

He could not understand the mass clamoring for decisive actions on his part. He declared his awareness of senior public officers coming habitually late to work and added that he could not go round hounding them with a club to whip them in line. It was the very first hint of his incompetence in public communication. He had hardly realized at that time that the implication of this comment was giving these public officers a blank check to keep coming late to work.

I have no doubt that President Jonathan is himself, aware of this personal weakness in public communication even though none of his aides would dare tell it to his face in the typical Nigerian apple-polishing fashion. It is a personal weakness that has contributed very strongly, to the public image that is presently resting on him as an albatross. It has cost him the perceived image of the innocent, calm and calculated intellectual that he radiated before engaging in unscripted public speeches.

Yet, the President does not seem to understand how to leave strategic moments that may define his weaknesses to his lieutenants to handle. His recent appearance on CNN with an opening symptom of stage-fright and attendant poor articulation is one example of an assignment that should have been better left to Reuben Abati.

All that aside though, weird and outlandish decisions often end up compounding the already battered image created by the glaring deficit in communication.

I have no doubt in my mind whatsoever that President Goodluck Jonathan is running an administration that has its own share of positive achievements. Unfortunately however, there is hardly any achievement that stands out in public consciousness today that compares to the payment of foreign debts, mobile phone revolution or an aggressive EFCC fight against corruption no matter how controversial they may be subjectively perceived.

In the power sector, figures available to the President that we have no reason to challenge, indicate sustained progress in the project of providing the nation with steady and uninterrupted power supply. Quite honestly, his acceptance of continuing the National Integrated Power Project (NIPP) started by Olusegun Obasanjo and abandoned by Umaru Musa Yar’Adua for no comprehensible reason, was one major step in the right direction that observers applauded. As usual in this cursed sector riddled with saboteurs and vested interests however, the more you look is the less you see. Ordinarily, one would have expected the work left for the present administration to handle in the power sector to span between a few months or a maximum of one year given the immense work already done by the Olusegun Obasanjo’s administration. But today, work is yet in progress and the target seems ever far away.

In a new public communication drive, the President’s men have made bold to highlight a quantum leap in the power sector. Unfortunately, the masses yearn to know when this giant stride will trickle down to their private homes. Indeed, when facts on the ground do not match the rhetoric, the impact is as bad as inarticulate communication. President Jonathan’s government is suffering from an acute problem of public communication under the management either of unqualified operatives or a leader that is simply resistant to constructive coaching.

In fact, moments requiring swift public explanation are left unused leaving the masses to speculate on skeletons in the closet. Farida Waziri was removed unceremoniously from the EFCC just as she was beginning to get assertive and execute the business she was appointed to do. The public waited to know why. They were only left to draw conclusions on their own with the facts on the ground. High-profile prosecutions that were started by her withered away in thin air. For once, the President decided to be assertive and determined. But it was only against the weakest in society.

The vehemence, zeal and determination with which President Jonathan sought to remove fuel subsidy in January 2012 almost made him look like a military General that he said he wasn’t. Farouk Lawan led a legislative committee and came up with mind-boggling revelations of filth and rot in the oil sector. He submitted recommendations. Then he was promptly set up in a conspiracy – oh sorry, sting operation – to appeal to his Nigerian instinct ever-ready for ‘egunje’. Ever since, the central issue has no longer been the revelations made by his committee but the man’s exercise of pure Nigerianism!

The no-nonsense Nuhu Ribadu was appointed to head a committee to feign seriousness on the part of his nominators in the quest to get to the root of the filth in the oil sector. In the end, two subordinate members of his committee were appointed into the same corporation at the center of the investigation. Ribadu ended up being rubbished, disparaged and denigrated and today, no one speaks a word anymore, of the findings and recommendations that he made. They were dead on arrival.

The cumulative impact of all these events that can hardly go down as mere coincidences coupled with inarticulate communication exemplified by a President with poor oratory abilities and the elevation of an achievement that hardly matches facts on the ground paints the picture of a very messy state of affairs under President Goodluck Jonathan.

The only public communication that the presidency seems to master very well these days is the art of lashing out at opponents and critics. The appointment of Doyin Okupe into the President’s communication team has given a face to the bad boy of wanton mismanagement.
In all fairness to this administration, it is at least handling this aspect with a touch of real professionalism. Oby Ezekwesili is the latest to have a taste of these stinging lyrics of the Abuja gangnam style.
Like many aggrieved Nigerians who could seemingly take it no more, she had expressed anger at the depletion of the nation’s foreign reserves and Excess Crude Account by the governments of Umaru Musa Yar’Adua and Goodluck Jonathan.

Like many other Nigerians, I had no problem sharing Mrs. Ezekwesili’s pains and frustrations. The president’s men however wasted no time going on the attack. They lashed out at this highly respected critical asset of international repute accusing her of also depleting funds under her watch in her short-lived days as Minister of Education under President Obasanjo. They shifted the focus from depletion to the accuracy of figures tangling $42 billion against the alleged $45 billion and citing central bank figures to buttress their point. It worked.

For a nation that has largely grown a DNA of detesting Olusegun Obasanjo, any revelation that is likely to place Obasanjo and anything that he represents in good light has a huge rebound potential and may boomerang. It thus came as it would. A section of Nigerians (most likely minority) turned the heat on Oby Ezekwesili with wild, acrimonious and sometimes despicable accusations. For the teeming majority of Nigerians though, the accuracy of the figures matter very little. The fact of unexplainable depletion is after all undisputable and was loudly criticized during the days of Umaru Musa Yar’Adua and less criticized under Goodluck Jonathan most likely out of resignation. In fact, given the impunity of theft in the oil sector and the weird reluctance of the Presidency to confront this crime, it is easy for any discerning mind to embrace any charge of impropriety against this government. Moreover, Oby Ezekwesili was not saying something new. It is a fact that everyone has long known that was simply being re-echoed by a competent authority.

The obstinate refusal to provide refineries for the local refinement of crude oil and kill the regime of importation has been a contentious issue hanging on the government’s neck. The deliberate attempt to avoid angering oil marketers who are at the center of corruption accusations is not lost on anyone. This hangs out against the backdrop of the rumored bankrolling of the President’s 2011 campaign by precisely these same oil marketers. It will therefore not require much proof for cries of corruption to stick on the President even if they had no credible basis at all.

Else, there is no law proclaiming Madam Oby Ezekwesili an infallible or unblemished saint. The fact is that people just do not care anymore if she also has a case to answer or not. After the conspiracy – my God, I mean sting operation on Farouk Lawan that showed him also as corrupt as the oil marketers, and the sting operation – no, this time conspiracy – to rubbish Nuhu Ribadu and show that he was after all, not as intelligent and smart as he thinks, people are simply fed up seeing the weaknesses of others exposed always and always only after they have or come too close to exposing the President’s “yansh”. Gradually, the President’s only surviving credible expertise of tongue-lashing and neutralizing opponents and critics may soon become an albatross around his neck if this cheap and transparent trend continues.

Else, I would have loved to know why the respected Oby Ezekwesili chose this time and none other to raise the alarm on foreign reserves when it was gradually beginning to soar again. I would have loved to know, the one compelling catalyzer that sparked off this alarm at this point in time and all that occurs to me – I’m afraid – is nothing else but strategic positioning for 2015 giving the President a small taste of the rough dance awaiting him on the stage, on which he plans to repeat his treacherous dance against all wisdom. But please psst! Do not say I told you because I don’t have the proof. It’s a messy, messy stage.

Watch out for my new book “Africa’s Diabolical Entrapment” – Author House, England

By Frisky Larr | NNP | June 15, 2012 -

Even though many neutral observers attributed the fatal incident to the characteristic lawless driving patterns of government convoys in road traffic, the circumstances surrounding the crash seemed nonetheless bizarre to say the least. The Governor’s life was saved by a whisker. Rather than being chauffeured in his official vehicle, he was reported to have driven himself in a nondescript and unmarked car in the middle of the convoy. There were good reasons to believe that a political motive was not improbable even if it was not a compelling necessity. The alarm was blown again a few weeks later. This time, a close aide and confidant of the Governor was killed in the middle of the night by assailants. The Governor wasted no time pointing accusing fingers at the PDP and even claimed to have received report about the venue, time and participants of the clandestine PDP meeting, in which the nefarious assassination plan was hatched.

The Governor did not tell Nigerians however that he had other compelling reasons, which made the death of Olaitan Oyerinde particularly painful to him. Subsequent media reports uncovered that Mr. Oyerinde had been strategically positioned to take over a leadership position in the country’s umbrella labor union Nigerian Labor Congress (NLC). It is this revelation that is exposing a can of worms in political machinations involving the Governor. It marks the Governor’s personal betrayal of public trust and his own involvement in manipulative restructuring. Adams Oshiomole as a man of the grassroots rode favorably on his tenacious commitment to the interest of workers in his capacity as a former labor leader. This factor single-handedly shot him into the hearts and minds of ordinary people before he became an action Governor counting on visible achievements.

Nigeria’s recent encounter with a major socioeconomic dispute bothering on welfare and corruption however showed a reversed attitude on the part of a man who moved from being a comrade to becoming a GOVERNOR. The fuel subsidy dispute showed Oshiomole’s overnight transformation in a virtual psychological sense. He became a vocal advocate of the removal of fuel subsidy in clear disregard for the pains it meant to ordinary people and in clear negation of all that he had stood for all the years of his leadership in the labor union. He sought to perform a delicate balancing act that was not supposed to place his sympathies in Public Square for all to see. Insiders and experts knew however, where his sympathies lie. This was partly evident, not the least, in his guarded admonishment at a point in time, of a cabinet colleague who expressed unreserved sympathy for protests against subsidy removal. In the end however, the subsidy removal project was defeated and Oshiomole’s glamour image suffered a major dent.

Being sympathetic to the cause of a federal government that was bent against all odds, on removing the subsidy, Oshiomole is reported to have worked for the restructuring of the country’s umbrella labor body, which was the arrowhead of the mass uprising in January 2012. The plot sought to work quietly to replace the leadership of the NLC with characters that are more sympathetic to the government’s cause of removing the oil subsidy without any meaningful public resistance. The adverse effects of the move do not seem to matter. Olaitan Oyerinde was one person that was reportedly designated for one of the top positions in the NLC. The swapping of positions was said to be a matter of time. A very short time!

Oshiomole was therefore in no hurry to point out this aspect of developments surrounding the political résumé of late Oyerinde. Pointing fingers at the opposition party had more political expediency even though the option of opposition’s involvement cannot be discounted. It is at this point however that several critics began asking aloud if the Governor is not just getting a little too desperate. Indeed, he has reasons for desperation too.

The prospect of losing the forthcoming gubernatorial election more likely by crook than by hook is looking increasingly realistic. It is not the desperation of the opposition PDP alone that is likely to unseat Governor Oshiomole with the federal might but critical fingers are now also beginning to flash the light of improprieties his awesome way. Quite lately, pictures emerged, of mansions and several other structures that he is building in his private estate at Iyamho, for which his salary and other emoluments cannot readily account. Several Journalists do not hide their complaints and grudges these days that the Governor is peccably following the familiar footsteps of his predecessor in office Mr. Lucky Igbinedion. Aside from working too closely with and often employing the services of the university cult, the “Black Ax” movement, for political intimidation and other vices, excessive orgies of womanizing is the least of all worries. Like his predecessor too, Gov. Oshiomole is said to be advancing construction works on his private Iyamho site with the services of South African contractors.

Often reportedly taking advantage of his annual N2 billion budgetary vote on security as is granted to all Governors, Adams Oshiomole – people say – has no difficulties dishing out millions for unexplained purposes and from unexplained budgetary sources these days. I remember the days of the subsidy protest when violence spilled into Benin City. The district called Hausa Quarters was reportedly stormed by protesters who killed 5 resident Northerners. Information of the killing reached the BBC correspondent in Lagos through informal sources, who promptly filed his report for the next hourly news. On calling some friends at the Press Center in Benin City to get more information, I was told that the Governor in an attempt to suppress the media coverage of the killings had paid 3 million Naira to reporters covering the event not to report the killings. At the time I told my contact on telephone however that the information was already on BBC news that same evening and the information was passed over, I could hear many people in the background burst into loud laughter in amusement. The first question I asked my colleague was where the money was taken from, if the claim was true. The answer I got was simple. What is N3million in a security vote of N2billion? The security vote is an area that no Governor is required to render account on. It is the source of random spending such as the purchases of Jeeps for friends and political sympathizers.

Today, complaints are growing louder. People complain of several improprieties of shocking dimensions that will leave several mouths agape if another Governor came in to expose the books. My information uncovers that construction work on the Airport road was awarded to a company called Servitek belonging to a man popularly known in Benin City as “Captain Hosa” – a man who is not an unknown political quantity – at the cost of N4billion. The total length of the road is just 8 kilometers. For some reason however, Captain Hosa defected to the PDP from the ACN. The contract was promptly taken away from him and re-awarded to a company called SERTRACO belonging to one Alhaji Inu Umoru. It did not matter that the work had been started and done in a minimum part. It was suddenly re-awarded for N6billion – 2 billion Naira in excess of the previous amount! Till the moment, the discrepancy remains unexplained.

People complain that indigenes of the state are hardly employed to work in the multiple construction projects. The contract for the construction of roads in the district called Ugbowo was said to have been awarded to a company called Hydrek owned by one Mr. Tinubu – don’t ask me which – who is definitely not an indigene of Edo state. Several Lebanese and South Africans are said to be having lucrative positions in many of the projects. In fact some sharp-tongued critics even blamed the recent collapse of the building under construction at the Central Hospital, on the haste to complete and commission the project before the July election date.

It has become obvious to many observers that several construction works that were started in the early days of the Governor’s tenure were still lingering with no prospect of completion any time soon. With so much internally generated revenue, Edo state is said to have amassed more cash than at any other point in the history of the state. Today however, people suspect that the government has become cash-strapped and that the projects may never be completed even halfway through a second term, if Oshiomole wins a return ticket.

One fact that should not be ignored however is that there are several roads that people are proud to point at! Roads that have been beautifully constructed and completed. Fixed drainage systems that have rescued several districts from the cyclical agony of the rainy season! There are several teaching and boarding facilities, schools and other public institutions that were dilapidating and have now been revamped and equipped for normal function the way they were conceived of in the days of Osaigbovo Ogbemudia. In fact the repeated claim of Governor Oshiomole’s achievements is not a mere window-dressing claim. The man has several completed projects to show for his tenure. This perhaps, is the reason that he is believed to be having a strong grassroots followership that should make him win re-election easily in a level playing field.

To survive, consolidate his position and perform these feats however, it is an indisputable fact that some form of protective and sometimes offensive thuggery is indispensable in a Nigerian political landscape, in which only the fittest survives. Unfortunately however, Adams Oshiomole seems to have lacked the finesse and sophistication of personal composure. Like Olusegun Obasanjo who achieved quite a lot for Nigeria and ends up simply being derided and abused by seemingly ungrateful Nigerians, Oshiomole’s personal arrogance and larger than life attitude seems to be his undoing factor. There is hardly anyone close to government house, who does not complain in private, about Oshiomole’s arrogant and conceited nature. He does not seem to have learned to tread the more psychologically productive path of humility and bending down low. This precisely, may turn out to become his undoing factor as the opposition now loudly and treacherously accuses him of disrespect for elders – a trick that may stick. One fact is certain though: ACN under Oshiomole much like PDP under Airhiavbere will both do their part in election rigging and violence to win the Governorship seat. They have both been bracing for the moment with psychological and physical weapons of all sorts.

In the highly likely event of Oshiomole’s ACN being outdone in election rigging and violence during the Governorship election, will Oshiomole be able to muster the force of people’s power in street protests? The same people that he so dispassionately and shamelessly betrayed in the fuel subsidy disaster? Let’s keep our fingers crossed.

By Frisky Larr | NNP | May 14, 2012 -

For this reason, Babatunde Fashola – not being a rough fighter and an eccentrically voluble self-promoter like Adam Oshiomole – may have a hell of a time managing a Federal government in Aso Rock. I may be right and I may be wrong in my speculations. But something tells me that Babatunde Fashola is the type that will serve Nigeria best in a position similar to Okonjo-Iweala’s. An informal and imperial Prime Minister exercising her powers quietly but decisively. This is absolutely without prejudice to other superior qualities and qualifications that Okonjo-Iweala no doubt has. She has shown during the fuel subsidy crisis that she can also fight back if she is wrongly put in a pillory. She is not afraid of confrontation. On the contrary, Babatunde Fashola comes across as a man who is most comfortable operating smoothly away from the gaze of shine and glamour.

Comparing this attribute to the imposing characters of the three northern musketeers of our present dispensation, it will be easier to understand the point I wish to make. As the Jonathan example is presently showing, quietness and shyness from the limelight seem poisonous for the office of the President of Nigeria. Even worse is the lack of guts to take on rich and powerful exploiters to protect the interest of the nation even if it means ruining one’s own political career. This fear of confrontation and preference for backstage dealings to foster business as usual is one character that Fashola seems to share with President Jonathan. The much publicized dispute between Fashola and Bola Tinubu in the run-up to the last general elections and the manner in which the issue was resolved quietly in the aftermath of obvious horse-trading seems to show Fashola’s glaring lack of appetite for confrontation. Confrontation however is an indispensable variable in the office of President.

On the contrary, we can all imagine how many rich and powerful exploiters will wet their pants in fear and panic if Nuhu Ribadu was suddenly picked to become President of Nigeria today. The Aondoaakas who subverted justice and probably enriched themselves illegally may run to exile overnight in the speed of Hussain Bolt. I do not know where High Court Justices like Marcel Awokunleyin who gave James Ibori a clean bill of health would choose to hide. Panic will definitely greet the rank and file of the powerful and stealing community. James Ibori tried to dare the fangs of President Jonathan but had to bolt helter-skelter when even Jonathan showed his teeth to fight his personal enemy the way he fought Timipre Sylva. Unfortunately the same Jonathan will never fight the enemies of the State. That is the impression Nigerians have of the President at the present moment.

Imagine Nasir El-Rufai being called upon today, to take the reins of leadership in Aso Rock and figure out how many enemies of the Nigerian State will go on self-imposed exile. Imagine Sanusi Lamido Sanusi mounting the imperial throne that he no doubt, would personally crave and figure out how many people will bolt.

Now, my motive in this essay is not to assess the overall suitability of these three northern musketeers for the office of President but to highlight the boldness and courage that these men undoubtedly have in the things they do much unlike Goodluck Jonathan the President of the nation. They have shown it abundantly in the discharge of their duties. Coincidentally, boldness and courage are two key attributes that any President of Nigeria needs. Olusegun Obasanjo showed Nigerians how necessary these attributes are and Goodluck Jonathan is confirming it daily by forcing Nigerians to miss precisely these essential attributes of the Obasanjo days.

Northern Nigeria blessed us with these three young patriotic men and I have no doubt that every Nigerian will agree with me that these three musketeers are patriotic to the bone. They are all well read, intelligent and intellectual in their different capacities. The most outstanding quality that they all have in common however, is their love for their country! You heard me right “Their country”!

Even though they all share Nigeria with us all, questions abound as a matter of compulsion if these three outstanding northerners of our present day love Nigeria as we all know it – Nigeria from North to South! I am deliberately refusing to include leading northerners of the older generation such as Ibrahim Babangida, Shehu Shagari, Umaru Dikko, Adamu Ciroma, Muhammadu Buhari or Abdulsalami Abubakar in this analysis. They are the known leaders of yesterday who laid the groundwork for the troubles of today – selfishly and inadvertently. We have therefore cried out loud for generational change and Obasanjo ushered it in – wittingly or unwittingly.

While many southerners of the younger generation excelled in thievery (see Lucky Igbinedion and James Ibori) Nasir El-Rufai and Nuhu Ribadu worked themselves into the hearts and minds of discerning observers. I personally became a die-hard fan of Nuhu Ribadu. Indeed, words could not describe how I felt when I heard that the ACN had nominated him for the presidential race in 2011. I mobilized very close and intelligent friends in my German abode and we all agreed to watch the situation very closely. We were ready to launch a vocal movement for Ribadu if we were sure that the game was genuine. We were very soon disillusioned when Nuhu Ribadu ran a very poorly managed campaign with what we considered to be a very inferior mode of strategizing. Nuhu Ribadu began to flirt with the self-declared committee of northern elders led by the infamous Adamu Ciroma. He was virtually begging to be named the northern consensus candidate after the demise of Abubakar Atiku. His focus was the north.

Sanusi Lamido Sanusi who has spoken himself into the hearts and minds of Nigerians, who love any semblance of intelligence, emerged from nowhere thanks to the late Umaru Musa Yar’Adua. Many of us opposed his appointment as Governor of the Central Bank when it was obvious that the late President was running a strategic course of northernizing leadership in Nigeria. We all began to have a rethink however as soon as we heard the man speak English. It sounds too simplistic and stupid but it is the plain truth. He didn’t only speak sound and clear English, he was also talking a whole lot of sense. We all became proud of him particularly when he courageously voiced out long overdue concerns about the legislative looting of Nigeria’s treasury. He didn’t care that he could lose his job. That was courageous.

Nasir El-Rufai stepped on toes as the Special Minister of the Capital territory. Till today he is paying the price for those patriotic deeds in an ungrateful society. He was courageous.

Unfortunately however, the mere mention of the word “North” is enough to mark the end of courage, patriotism and neutrality for our three northern musketeers. In a manner symbolic and perhaps characteristic of a seemingly pervasive northern psyche, none of the three has the will or courage to mention some objective and courageous home truths when it comes to the north. Till the present day, I am yet to hear a single northern Nigerian with political leadership function coming out openly to show a little understanding for the complaints and suspicions of the south.

While the Northerners are absolutely correct in condemning the behavior of the ruling PDP in flouting its own zoning regulation to smuggle Goodluck Jonathan into the presidency, no single northerner has ever flipped the coin to see or even try to understand the other side of the debate. While the propaganda machine of the north makes haste to tell the Americans that the Boko Haram killers are no terrorists but merely economically deprived bunch of innocent young lads, no single northerner summons the courage to shout out loud and clear that northern leaders who ruled this country for almost three-quarter of the years since independence are responsible for the marginalization that a southern President should tolerate bombings for.

Neither Nuhu Ribadu nor El-Rufai stood up for one single day to say “Come to think of it northern siblings, to some extent, I can understand the south.” The axiomatic and inevitable reality that the south will get up one day and say “Come on buddy, we also have a right to rule this country” was not factored into any intellectual reasoning whatsoever. The simple need to appreciate this basic fact before proceeding to pillory the PDP for flouting its own zoning policy was simply lost on the north in a collective and seemingly conspiratorial manner. This single courageous move alone would have made Nuhu Ribadu an immortal creature whose de-tribalized spirit would have hovered visibly above any serving presidential material until he is moved onto the throne of supremacy alive or as an unsung hero in the future history of the country.

While El-Rufai is busy blowing the trumpet of negotiations with Boko Haram, Sanusi Lamido is leaving no one in doubt that his constituency is first and foremost, northern Nigeria. I therefore ask myself a few crucial questions: “Will there ever be a de-tribalized northern Nigerian in this country to look across the borders of the northern states?” “Do northern leaders not have an obligation to pacify the rest of the country and chart a new peaceful path forward?” “Is Nigeria not for us all or is there a separate country for the Northerners?” “Are northern Nigerians truly immersed in the illusion that Nigeria is theirs to rule and theirs alone?”

If the realization dawns on our northern brothers and sisters that they have ruled this country for such a long period of time and are therefore largely responsible for most of the fundamental problems that we suffer, will they not understand that they owe a duty to restore peace and pacify the rest of the country rather than rejoicing quietly over Boko Haram’s atrocities? There is indeed nothing wrong in adopting the enticing carrot approach to convince justifiably aggrieved southerners to sheath their sword and let Nigeria begin afresh. Instead, the northerners are aggressively beating the drums of war in a battle that no one stands to win but will ultimately end in the destruction of a promising Nigeria. It is so unfortunate that the foremost elites prefer to play the religious card to win the hearts and minds of ordinary northerners knowing fully well that the spread of Islam by the force of arms is absolutely impossible in today’s world order of aggressive globalization.

By Frisky Larr | NNP | May 7, 2012 –

As the only public institution that has now moved halfway on the side of the common man, the House of Representatives added even more questions to the yet unanswered ones through its report on the Fuel Subsidy Probe.

For the avoidance of doubt, it may be pertinent to repeat a few old and almost forgotten questions on whose heap the report has now piled additional queries. The President has till today, failed to reveal to the world who the Boko Haram agents in his own cabinet are. The President is yet to tell the nation his reasons for removing Mrs. Farida Waziri from the EFCC just when she was beginning to gather steam and drive her job in the right direction. The President is yet to tell Nigerians just one reason for telling lies to his fellow citizens through proxies, in the run-up to the catastrophic removal of fuel subsidy on January 01, 2012. The nation is waiting for an answer to the President’s sudden and unexplainable breach of his own promise to PDP Governors in advance of last year’s presidential election that he would serve only one term as President. The questions could go on and on.

Credulous analysts believed in good faith that the removal of fuel subsidy was in the overall interest of the nation’s economy. Many carried out hypothetical and sometimes outlandish mathematical calculations. They trusted the President and believed he was doing his bit to move the country forward. The thought of some vested interests being in the focus of executive protection sounded just too remote. President Jonathan reaped the most praises from representatives of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund! Such protagonists believed that the President was opening the economy to the natural influence of market forces. They could be forgiven because they were non-Nigerians and could not know the depth of routine political romance with corrupt forces.

Sanusi Lamido Sanusi advanced several theories on “White Elephant projects” and sounded reasonable and intelligent. Diezani Alison-Madueke joined the chorus and hid behind the credibility clout of Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. Together, they sounded academically formidable and indomitable.

Now that the House of Representative’s committee probing the intriguing schemes of the petroleum sector has released its report, we are seeing the worms concealed in the can. Did Sanusi Lamido not have a clue that such underhand dealings were going on in the sector? Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala may know less about the extent of the rot in the sector due to her neophyte status in the Nigerian political arena. But what about the President at whose desk the buck stops? As a full-bred Nigerian politician from the Niger Delta, will President Jonathan claim innocence of all the crimes in the oil sector?

For a recap of the committee’s findings, please join me on a brief trip into the wild world of the oil sector. The very first fact that the committee unearthed was the vast array of misleading information to justify the quick removal of oil subsidy. People knew the truth and deliberately circumvented it preferring to buy praise-singers to drum up support in public protests and treacherous newspaper articles, all in the bid to remove subsidy quickly and smoothly. Beneficiaries were those who would have escaped prosecution since the prevailing atmosphere was growing increasingly volatile. The subsidy for the continued importation would have been further paid by the poor consumers of refined fuel. Refineries could not be fixed. The cabal was declared more powerful than the government. But when Farida Waziri got audacious and began to turn her attention to the oil sector for possible arrests however, she was called off by presidential absolution and removed unceremoniously. Unknown friends in the oil sector were amongst the beneficiaries.

People were aware of companies that claimed subsidy payments and yet imported not a single drop of fuel. The House committee counted 20 companies that received importation allocation even before they got registered with the PPPRA. A Texas company called Eco-Regen with office in Abuja reportedly claimed N1.9 billion for importing absolutely nothing. In the year 2009, President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua removed subsidy on kerosene. The then Vice President Goodluck Jonathan was fully aware of the presidential directive. Retail prices for kerosene were hiked in the aftermath of the subsidy removal. Yet the NNPC had a total of N310.4 billion credited to its account as subsidy payment on kerosene for the period 2009 to 2011. NNPC characteristically made such illegal deductions from sales proceeds before paying the balance into the Federation Account. Was President Jonathan unaware of the directive issued by his erstwhile boss? Worse still, was Diezani Alison-Madueke the Oil Minister unaware of this illegality?

In an obvious cover-up of impeding consequences following the uncontrolled intrigue of a mob-gone-wild, the President’s government resorted to using the wrong figure on the total amount of subsidy spent in 2011. Having massively and illegally exceeded the budgetary limit on fuel subsidy after satisfying cronies, allies and collaborators on payback time, the President’s government began to panic. They had to pull the trigger in the face of virtual insanity. A high figure had to be announced to the public that should be high enough to scare the wit out of ordinary Nigerians and convince them to embrace subsidy removal. It was however not to be so high as to attract any inquisitive probe from the legislative arm of government. The government simply needed a figure that was moderately high enough to appeal to reason without creating complications for itself.

It thus declared having spent N1.3 billion on fuel subsidy in 2011. In the course of the probe however, the Accountant-General claimed to have disbursed a total of N1.6 billion for fuel subsidy. We all wondered what happened to N0.3 billion. The CBN added another twist to the drama by admitting that it paid out N1.7 billion to the Accountant-General for the same purpose. We wondered what the Accountant-General did to N0.1 billion. At the end of the day however, it was a bombshell. The committee ascertained that well over N2.6 billion was spent on fuel subsidy in the year 2011. This prompted speculations that a part of the money may have been used illegally to finance undeclared political activities. A clearly impeachable offence on the part of the President if proven to be true!

While Nigeria had only 19 registered fuel importers in 2008, PPPRA’s register showed a record number of 140 importers in 2011. An ominous increase of almost 740% in just three years! Questions abound on how many refineries the amount of N2.6 billion (paid to marketers) and N310 billion (paid to the NNPC on kerosene) would have built for Nigeria since 2008. A total of N230.184 billion was paid to marketers that did not import or supply any fuel at all. President Jonathan ignored all these facts and sought to bleed the peasants deep from their heart. The question then arises why the President has never been keen on probing corruption within the Nigerian system. Who are these importers and marketers? What relationship do they have with politicians? Why did the government prefer to punish the masses rather than justifiably prosecute these blood-sucking vampires?

The report of the committee probe further reveals that the Accountant-General who was in charge of payments for the period covered by the probe paid N999 million for 128 times in a single day. The committee was unable to ascertain the names of the recipients of this horrendous payment. This Accountant-General is today the elected Governor of Gombe State.

So badly have pecuniary interests become interwoven with politics in this diabolic project of sucking Nigeria dry that presidential foot-dragging on the implementation of the committee’s recommendations is all too comprehensible. After all, humans are naturally reluctant to bite the fingers that fed or still feed them.

As usual, President Goodluck Jonathan is unable to read the writings on the wall. Nigeria is undoubtedly drifting helplessly into the administrative era of a leader who has little or no talent in leadership. A President basking in the delusive safety of security provided by government functionaries and militants from the Niger Delta! It may do well to insert the footnote that Alison-Madueke was reportedly appointed as Minister of Petroleum Resources only after the intensive intervention of a militant. The political island of the Niger Delta with which the President has surrounded himself will quickly fade into a powder keg if he unwittingly triggers a revolution to engulf the land. He may end up unable to contain the stream of human blood that will color his hands when the toll is taken of the victims of his acts. In a nation where honor counts, the President by now, would no doubt have addressed the nation apologizing to the masses in humility and revert the pump price of fuel to its original state of N65.00 per liter while he sets out to cleanse the sector once and for all.

The time is now ripe for labor unions, students’ unions and other civil society movements to swing into action yet again. Mass action looming for the second time in just six months in the middle of a spate of mindless terrorism! This time though, blood will be spilled from the very start since government will seek to protect strategic areas of demonstrations by the force of arms. As usual, President Jonathan is apparently oblivious of the strength of the inferno that he is choosing to handle with kid’s gloves. Fire that may consume the entire edifice of his political existence! Kill the probe report and wait for the consequences. That’s the only warning that anyone may wish to sound to the President’s ears since a word, as they say, should be enough for the wise!

By Frisky Larr, NNP, Feb. 8, 2012

The past few days have borne testimony to almost everything that is characteristically going wrong with our present-day Nigeria. One of such problems is embodied by two prominent Journalists who are regrettably fighting each other from opposite sides of the fence – Reuben Abati and Dele Momodu! As a critic of governments outside the corridors of power, Reuben Abati made a name for himself as one outstanding Journalist with a mastery of the use of words to the detriment of the object of his derision.

The most prominent victim of Reuben Abati’s vitriolic attacks clothed in the unholy mixture of logical twists and grammatical turns has been ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo. Without prior knowledge of his antecedents and biography, consuming Reuben Abati’s products in political analysis during the days of Olusegun Obasanjo always left a sour after-taste in my mouth. His abuses and condemnation always struck the right cord with the sentiments of the reader. From the professional viewpoint of the unbiased gatekeeper however, I was always down with consternation on how easy it was to see through the propagandist character in things that Abati wrote. I will liken Reuben Abati’s attitude to an attempt by a writer in today’s dispensation to cast aspersion on Goodluck Jonathan by striking the right nerve with the right abuses and characterization on the attempt to implement a complete withdrawal of fuel subsidy. No doubt, such a writer, with fame and positive reputation will win the admiration of several readers (intellectual or otherwise) for populist and derisive expressions. Many of such readers will however hardly have time to read carefully between the lines to detect if the abusive writer has done anything at all to also acknowledge the good motive behind the actions of the perpetrator of subsidy removal before moving on to identify the flaw in the moves and reasoning. Reuben Abati belonged and still belongs to the camp that would criticize, attack and destroy his opponent without providing a single hint of any positive motive that may have ended up placing such motives in misplaced actions. He will hardly ever identify anything positive about the object of his vitriolic attack.

History has it that Reuben Abati solicited the post of Government Spokesperson under President Obasanjo. His request was reportedly rudely turned down. Umaru Musa Yar’Adua came on board and preferred Segun Adeniyi to Reuben Abati. Jonathan came on and started off with Ima Niboro. In all of these times, Reuben Abati’s performance as a critic was at variance with the tribal constitution of the government in power. Upon the exit of Olusegun Obasanjo, sharp-tongued observers noted a more gentle and rational touch to Abati’s criticism of the new government that then had an Ijaw man as Vice President. What happened in quick succession is now history. The Ijaw man eventually became President and ditched Ima Niboro to make a fellow Ijaw man Reuben Abati the Presidential spokesman.

What is so interesting in the events that unfolded ever after is that President Goodluck Jonathan represents everything that is antithetic to every humanly imaginable elements of charisma. Precisely charisma it was that characterized the government of Olusegun Obasanjo and made his government so lively.

The greatest criticism that Olusegun Obasanjo reaped in his involuntary harvest of pastime condemnations was the cloak of arrogance that people forced him to wear. In fact, in my book “Nigeria’s Journalistic Militantism”, I quoted a Journalist colleague, who asked me while I was interviewing him for the book, “Who are you to advise Obasanjo?” There was a general consensus that President Obasanjo was strongly resistant to counseling and professional advice. Today like me, very many Nigerians can now understand why Obasanjo resisted counseling and turned his appointed political Advisers into such bench warmers that they eventually turned out to be.

The ability to hear different and multi-fold advices – solicited and unsolicited – and end up sorting them out to pick the most viable option basically requires a strong intellectual gift and a natural talent often nurtured by sound academic drills. Olusegun Obasanjo was not a renowned Professor of any academic discipline whatsoever. He never pretended to be a global academic light tower of any single field. He was a patriot and seemed to have placed his love for his country above all else. He chose not to subject himself to any confusing multi-fold counseling that will end up messing up an already desolate “Pemkelemessi”!

Today, we have a supposed academic light-tower as President of our country. Holder of a Doctorate degree (I was told) in Zoology! The run-up to January 01^st 2012 marked the first major if not most decisive test till date, of his intellectual and leadership prowess. Surrounded not only by counselors from within the land but also from IMF and other international sources, he ended up making the most politically suicidal of all choices on fuel subsidy removal and ended up blaming other people but himself for the foreseeable consequences. Olusegun Obasanjo would probably have listened to fewer advices, added one and one to make two and reflected on his past experience as Head of State to make a better choice to avert that inevitable mass uprising.

Indeed, I feel the pain so deeply in me that no matter how far I try, there is hardly anything substantial that I can pick upon to highlight as an outstanding achievement so far attributable to the government of President Jonathan. I have always acknowledged that the modest improvement in power supply so far, is one good step in the right direction that should not be overlooked. But so far it is yet a step. The milestone achievement on the decongestion of our seaports is also one good step that basically touches the lives of importers and not the common man. The good engineering work started on the Lagos-Benin Expressway is yet to be brought to a conclusive end. So in very many areas, there is hope but no fait accompli.

The million dollar question however, is what use all these will be if the nation left to reap the benefit of any such achievement (if it eventually materializes) is left in tatters as a shadow of years gone by. That is where the current rudderless status may end up leaving Nigeria. Of particular interest is the Boko Haram menace.

Following the arrest of the supposed Boko Haram King-Pin, there is now an uncontrolled jostle for a political settlement by people that have hitherto remained mute. The President’s first public statement was to reiterate that the menace will be ended, “no matter what” as if anyone had ever being in doubt that the menace will end one way or the other, any day, any time. While the general public more than ever, is now waiting for assuring signals that the perpetrators and financial supporters of Boko Haram will be found and punished according to law, the President is engaged in quiet backroom diplomacy negotiating with backgrounders and assuring them of a soft landing. Innocent lives have gone just in vain while living souls are helplessly watching in want of leadership inspiration. Unfortunately, not even half the doggedness with which the President confronted the masses on the fuel subsidy issue is brought to bear on Boko Haram protagonists.

The President however moved notably very swiftly to prosecute senior Police Officers who served their own country by killing the blood-thirsty illiterate leader and founder of Boko Haram named Yusuf, the way Osama Bin Leader was summarily executed. Uppermost in Jonathan’s mind was to please Northern leaders who counseled him that the prosecution would be a prelude to the laying down of arms by the brainwashed fanatics. Whenever it comes to confronting powerful people and asserting himself however, Jonathan is surprisingly cowardly and easily intimidated. Very much unlike Olusegun Obasanjo! Yet this President will never have the courage one day, to apologize to the nation for the wrong and misplaced prosecution of these Police Officers and compensate them for the wrongdoing. Juxtaposed with similar issues however, the nation will sooner or later face the rude awakening of a full reinstatement of Justice Salami with all accruing benefits, all because Salami has powerful backers.

The President cried out that elements of Boko Haram have infiltrated his government. Yet he refuses to speak out on Sanusi’s aggressive drive to appease his northern and Muslim constituency through Islamic Banking and the academic rationalization of Boko Haram’s terrorism. Astoundingly, the nation has now woken up to the reality that President Jonathan has actually mandated Sanusi to pursue the Islamic Banking agenda only quietly and implement it away from media and public view as from January 01^st 2012. The same way this President sought to ambush his own people on fuel subsidy is the way he has now spat on the sensitivities of other religious communities to please Sanusi and his background backers for reasons yet unknown. Fortunately for him, Islamic Banking is not an issue as sensitive as the removal of fuel subsidy so that a mass uprising is not expected.

Most appalling however, is the length the President has now gone to desecrate the office of the Presidency by provoking an all-out brawl with a former Governor. Just when we thought the Atiku-Obasanjo dogged fight was the last the nation would see of such public desecration of the exalted office, President Jonathan chose to open a new chapter unforced. While the Atiku-Obasanjo battle was a class warfare that cut across ethnic divide and historical residues of colonial politics that was unwittingly fueled by unsuspecting collaborators, Jonathan’s chosen open mudslinging with Timpre Sylva is absolutely unnecessary, unwarranted and unpresidential.

In times like this, I wonder if he is truly advised by his media man Reuben Abati with all his wealth of media experiences. After all, he is a President known for his willingness to listen to as many views as the world can offer, never mind that he will always end up making the wrong choices. Making the wrong choices however also leads to speculations of how much wrong advice dominates the flood of choices the President is made to face. Placing this fact against the high qualification of his advisers, one is forced to ask what paper qualification is still worth these days anyway.

It is yet a mystery what informed the President’s comments on Governor Sylva while cautioning aspiring Governor Dickson to watch out on his performance index if he eventually becomes Governor. Something tells me however, that President Jonathan made this speech unscripted leaving his handlers with a nightmare scenario.

So in the end, leaving all jokes aside, we will be able to understand that President Obasanjo who stepped on several toes by not listening to advices was least conspicuous for making the wrong choices. If at all, he was known for making the wrong enemies. Many of his enemies from the North or from the South would not have dared to toy with Obasanjo the way they all toy with President Jonathan these days.

By Frisky Larr, NNP, Jan. 25, 2012

The Governor of the Central Bank, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi put it in blunt terms when he explained in a town-hall meeting to sell the government’s project to the people. He stated in clear terms that every attempt to have government invest on refineries and keep them running before the complete removal of subsidies will also go the way of every other “white elephant project” before it, namely FAIL. In his own views, the removal of subsidy will be pulling away the carpet from beneath the feet of corrupt individuals so that corruption can no longer thrive. In other words, acting to regain the losses suffered so far in the hands of such identifiable kleptomaniacs is not at all on the government’s agenda to say the least of prosecuting these identifiable individuals. It does not seem to matter that the volume of theft so far perpetrated on Nigeria and its people is in and of itself, a more than sufficient volume to give the nation the number of refineries that it requires, if only half of it was recovered.

Unfortunately however, this indirect admission of virtual incapacitation and (should I say) incompetence was not immediately recognized for the shameful attribute it contained because the speaker was smart and intelligent enough to clad the rhetoric in fine, academic eloquence. The message in the submission was nothing else but a clear indictment of government. A blatant dereliction of sovereign duty! Sanusi Lamido Sanusi implicitly acknowledged the presence of evil forces within the oil industry that are difficult, if not impossible to fight. It is in fact, a pathetic admission of government’s incapacity as it presently stands, to fight the oil cabal.

When President Jonathan brought back Nuhu Ribadu from exile with safety guarantees and speculated assurances that he would be given a role in the fight against corruption, there were high hopes of a new jolt that may take control of the highly vexed sector. Corrupt people were in fear. It was something that was badly needed in the aftermath of the lame-duck days of late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua. When the empowerment of Nuhu Ribadu failed to materialize however, the folks were full of understanding for the possible underlying reasoning. The President did not need to offer an explanation. People accepted that the need to avoid controversy and troubled waters in his own days of political infancy at the Presidency may have informed the decision. Such was the enormity of goodwill enjoyed by Goodluck Jonathan.

As if gifted with a special skill for timing crucial decisions wrongly however, the President gave the nation a first slap in the face in the year 2011. For no discernible reason and at the most inexpedient of times, the President fired Farida Waziri just when she was beginning to gather steam and learn her lessons in acquiring the necessary sting to keep corruption culprits in shock and awe. She had just indicted the former Speaker of the House of Representatives who was shown the way out of prominence in a spectacular electorate revolt. This was a Speaker who left office selling off several important government assets that were assigned to his office, to his private estate. He was a powerful figure. Farida Waziri’s house-cleaning exercise began with him and the process was gathering steam. Reports claim that she was beginning to beam her searchlight on the oil sector before the President pulled the emergency breaks and nipped the process in the bud. It is yet unclear who mounted pressure on the President to do what he did but pressure, we all know, was definitely mounted by powerful and potential victims of different sectors. The President has remained mute and refused to give a single word of explanation till the present day.

He got away with it because Farida Waziri sowed the seed of bitterness from the very start by being too vocally critical of Ribadu’s methods which she ended up adopting after seeing no alternative method of effective deterrence. She was initially appointed as a child of the establishment to protect the favorite presidential sons of inordinate corruption under Umaru Musa Yar’Adua. Farida was nobody’s darling and the President could get away with ditching her unceremoniously without public outcry in contrast to the removal of Nuhu Ribadu.

But just what is it that scares President Jonathan from fighting corruption? Under President Yar’Adua, the symbolic representation personified in James Ibori was clear for all to see. Olusegun Obasanjo granted a free hand in hunting down corrupt enemies and only a few corrupt friends! Jonathan however scuttles every move to kick-start the battle whenever there is a glimmer of hope. If today, President Jonathan devotes half the passion with which he sought to remove fuel subsidy to the fight against corruption in the oil sector, no doubt many will be trembling in the National Assembly as will many in the cabal of oil importers. The President will not put his entire political career on the line arresting and prosecuting corrupt members of the oil cabal. No. He would rather save that for the removal of subsidy without a care for the hardship that it brings. Lamorde was a credible name when Nuhu Ribadu held sway. Today he is a shadow of himself with impotent rhetorics. EFCC under Lamorde is presently a toothless bulldog that seems to launch corruption investigations only upon executive instructions as the current cosmetic drive against the oil cabal shows. Lamorde is simply not continuing the fight where Farida Waziri stopped it but time remains on his side to turn the table around.

One gets the impression today that Jonathan rules over the Poor and the Weak while the Rich and Powerful perpetrators of corruption rule over the government of President Jonathan. An illegal government governing the people’s government, so to speak, while the people’s government turns against the people to checkmate the forces that it fears!

In a democracy, government sets the agenda not entrepreneurs. If government’s involvement in the building of refineries proves economically unfeasible, government sets the conditions for issuing licenses and for withdrawing same. How effectively has government taken on this responsibility?

It is on this note that President Jonathan should ask himself who would have shed tears over a possible regime change during the fuel subsidy uprising after this gross declaration of moral bankruptcy. A government that openly admits its own incapacitation in fighting a section of society that is dragging the entire society down and pulling back the hands of the clock is of course, the loudest advocate of regime change. When a smart and intelligent person like Sanusi Lamido Sanusi comes out to admit openly that government is limited in its capacity to implement certain policies (building refineries) because past governments had failed in the process, he seems to have forgotten that overhauling government to root out such inefficiencies is also a credible if not the most fundamental prerequisite to solving the persisting problem. Insistence on just one solution option that squeezes the last juice out of the Poor and the Weak “for a short period” as Diezani Allison-Madueke puts it, simply forces one to ask the question what vested interest there is in this one and only solution option. Moreover, no one says what he or she understands by “short period” to say the least of the capacity of the Poor and the Weak to cushion these pains for the so-called “short period”. These are the parameters that are beating the drums of regime change unconsciously. Neighboring Ghana got where it is today through a cleansing regime change that the people holding sway did not bargain for. It was borne out of the recognition of government’s incapability, which the Nigerian government now seems to be admitting to openly.

In the end, we as Nigerians are happy today that the mass uprising in condemnation of Jonathan’s unnecessary subsidy obstinacy and arrogance has sent a clear message to root out corruption from the oil sector and from all arms of government first before the killing of the regime of importation. The message must be understood that there is no alternative or short-cut by-pass to fighting corruption in government and elsewhere hands-down. Every attempt to sideline this evil and circumvent the process to the detriment of the Poor will end up in sheer wickedness and pretended posturing no matter the amount of stubbornness and political stake backing it up.

Taking the message home from the people’s protest, the government has now launched an assault on corruption in the oil sector and gradually facts are beginning to emerge of some treasury self-service at the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) in the disbursement of oil subsidy. Will President Jonathan claim not to have known all these? Will he claim not to have known the people involved? It took Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala to unearth the gruesome fact while testifying before a Senate committee, that government has not known till today, who authorized the withdrawal of subsidy money by the NNPC. The self-service and non-transparent practice has grown over time and was inherited by a government, which failed to ask questions and yet pretends to strike a major note of difference. There is indeed, hardly any hope that this new drive to purge the oil sector will be anything but window-dressing cosmetics.

In spite of all her mistakes in the oil subsidy debacle by sticking her neck too far out of the window, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala remains the ostensibly most credible character in President Jonathan’s government. No doubt, reasonable people will be ready to forgive her mistakes because she is not a seasoned politician with a mastery of the art of mass deception. Denying the influence of IMF’s handwriting in the fuel subsidy Harakiri, telling the world that the President had not yet made up his mind are all lies that shouldn’t have been told. It does not matter that the President made her look like a liar by changing his mind without informing her. The President bears the blame towards her while she bears the blame to the people for being the voice of the President. I, like many other well-wishers hold the firm belief that Ngozi alone will be able to wipe out the influence of the oil cabal from the government’s treasury if Jonathan does not intervene. That is the unfortunate impression many of us get outside the government. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala will bell the cat but who will follow suit? Diezani Allison-Madueke presently gripped by the fear of losing her job may follow diligently but how many trees do we need to make a forest? A very bright and intelligent technocrat that we have in Sanusi Lamido Sanusi is making his limited impact on the banking sector after tarnishing his image with an unnecessarily sectional and populist appeasement of a religious and geographical constituency by stubbornly sticking to the divisive label “Islamic Banking”. He has all it takes to have known and done better than he actually did.

Jonathan’s government is not short of intelligent people but his government is characterized by very many goofy decisions especially in the signaled lack of intent to fight corruption head-on! With eyes wide open and seeing, no one allows a flying stone to run into the open eyes. Jonathan knows this and cannot say that he has not been warned a thousand times because a word, they say, is enough for the wise.

By Frisky Larr, NNP , Jan. 20, 2012

Today, in the heat of the fuel subsidy protest, which President Jonathan initially thought was a child’s play, the President said his government, the National Assembly and Security Forces have all been infiltrated by Boko Haram operatives.

Just one week later though, a Deputy Inspector-General of Police Mr. Audu Abubakar took center stage. He did not send the President a memo. He was answering a reporter’s question, in which he implicitly lectured the President on how not to make callous and irresponsible statements. “Whatever you hear about Boko Haram existence in the police has not been proved by anyone. We police are like judge(s), if we have not prove(n) any case we cannot base issue of that magnitude on hearsay, there is need to verify things very well … Until such is confirmed (through) arrest(s), investigation(s) and prosecut(ion) in (a) court of law, (no) one can be declared a member of Boko Haram sect. As of now we have not detected anyone in the police. This is my personal opinion.” (Quotation grammatically edited through parentheses) He was quoted as saying. We keep our fingers crossed to see how the President will react.

Only on Saturday the 14^th of January 2012, the alleged Boko Haram mastermind of the Christmas Day bombing of Churches in the North Mr. Kabir Sokoto, was reportedly arrested at the Governor’s Lodge of Borno State in Abuja. The most unlikely place anyone would look for a terrorist! The news was celebrated as a high-profile arrest to mark the long-awaited breakthrough in investigations. Then three days later, on Tuesday the 17^th of January 2012, newspapers reported the seemingly facilitated escape of the high-profile suspect from Police custody in circumstances that have raised a whole lot of questions. This report hit the airwaves precisely on the same day that the Deputy Inspector-General of Police announced that there were no Boko Haram operatives in the Nigerian Police Force.

What really happened? A man arrested in Abuja was taken back to Maiduguri in Borno State to accompany the Police in a search on his house. While he was arrested by a huge contingent of policemen who stormed the Borno State’s Governor’s Lodge in Abuja, he was accompanied to his own home in Maiduguri only by five policemen who were then overpowered by armed loyalists of the arrested fellow, no doubt, upon a tip-off. Nigerians are still waiting for an answer on why he had to accompany the police in a search to be conducted in his own home. How did information fizzle out of police investigations?

From day one of Goodluck Jonathan’s Presidency (Acting Presidency included), people clamored for more assertiveness on the part of a President perceived to be acting too weak. Inciting comments were made by electioneering opponents that undermined the President’s authority to secure the country. The President did not react. A Central Bank Governor took center stage canvassing sectionalism and religious bias in the banking system of a secular state. People expected a word from the President in vain. When he finally spoke out, he told the world that he is slow to acting because he chooses to get it right.

The man who came out to say that a violent change may become inevitable if President Jonathan made peaceful change impossible was reportedly rewarded with lucrative contracts leaving him a contented man and a friend of the President today. The most vociferous opponent who asked voters to lynch anyone tampering with votes ended up being courted like a bride to join hands with the President. It didn’t matter if his inciting comments contributed to post election riots that killed several innocent Youth Corpers.

When the President however decided to be more assertive, he turned on the Poor and the Weak. He imposed and forced a policy down their throat not caring about the dire consequences on survival. He was ready for them in whatever guise even if it meant a revolution. Information reveals that his mentor and political pathfinder former President Olusegun Obasanjo offered prudent advices well in advance of mass uprising. But the nation seemed to have a President that was bent on practicing assertiveness on the back of the poor and the weak! The President was warned of the possible consequences of a prolonged mass uprising that he was bent on daring. It all fell on deaf ears.

Faced with the palpable realty of a possible “Regime Change” – euphemism for “Military Coup d’etat” – however, the President suddenly turn out to portray the image of a scaredy cat declaring the limits of his revolution-readiness. He preemptively sent out soldiers to different hotspots to keep the folks in fear and trepidation.

Leaders have come and gone in Nigeria’s political landscape. Many were despised and hardly anyone loved. For different reasons too! A few weeks ago, no one would have thought that any Nigerian President will succeed in the present dispensation, in rendering himself unwittingly more hated by the folks than was former President Olusegun Obasanjo. In spite of all detestations, there was hardly any observer, to say the least of the common man, who looked on Olusegun Obasanjo as a “Mumu President”. Such was the mildest adjective, with which protesters described President Jonathan in Placards that went though the world in the five-day subsidy protest.

No sooner had the heat been taken off the uprising – and the President had to thank his stars that the folks were yet unprepared for a full blown revolution the Arab-style – than the President summoned the diplomatic corps in his country to tender an unreserved apology for the inconveniences of the five-day protest. He had admitted in hindsight that his poorly thought-through policy of complete subsidy withdrawal brought hardship on the Poor and the Weak. He calmed frayed nerves with a compromise reduction of subsidy in place of a full-scale withdrawal. Meanwhile lives had been lost and several damages done to materials and the economy of the nation. But the goddamn nation deserves no apology from the President. His priority was the international community, which owned the gallery to which he seemed to have played, while he leaves his image launderers the uphill task of dispelling this stigma of a “Mumu President”.

The Presidency looked like a rudderless ship with Ministers fighting individually to redeem their names after a campaign of lies that left stains on reputations. The nation saw the handwriting of the IMF in an ill-advised policy. Yet a prominent Minister came out to deny this as flatly as flat can be. Claims of ongoing consultations and decisions stayed till the conclusion of consultations turned out to be blatant lies – by design or accident. But truth be told, this Minister Mrs. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala still remains one of Nigeria’s brightest brains to run the nation’s Economy.

The last few days have produced political losers and hardly any winner but the most prominent casualty is the President himself. Honor, Respectability and Competence on the job now seem like strongly negotiable attributes in the Presidency that now make the President appear like doing some on-the-job training. A costly experiment for a nation of over 150 million people!

To underscore the loss of respectability, a Deputy Inspector-General of Police has become a trailblazer in lecturing the President on how not to make unguided statements. This is indicative of presidential respectability at its lowest ebb.

The lingering Boko Haaram embarrassment is persistently putting the President on edge. The strength of the forces behind this killer movement can no longer be concealed from view upon the arranged escape of a high-profile suspect that would have provided the key to unlocking the evil mystery. The Inspector-General of Police moved swiftly to suspend the Commissioner of Police of the State in question as if in a desperate search of a pawn to sacrifice. But the President will never know when to move swiftly to replace the Inspector-General himself. Several evidences have pointed to several unanswered questions in the conduct of Hafiz Ringim regarding the Boko Haram issue but our President will hardly recognize them and act assertively. He will never recognize the need to skip seniority in the force for this one moment and appoint a Southern Police Officer or a very credible and trustworthy Northerner as Inspector-General to fight Boko Haram since many Northerners now seem compromised. The Borno State government hit the headlines recently for paying N100 million compensation to the family of the slain senior operative of Boko Haram killed in disagreement over the approach to a peace deal. But Christians and common victims of Boko Haram killers are vanities of no gender! The Governor’s Lodge of Borno State was the venue of the arrest of the high-profile operative of Boko Haram. Borno State’s capital was the venue of the escape of this high-profile captive. Yet Jonathan will not know what to do with this Governor and his affiliates. Assertiveness does not go down well with the powerful!

Nigeria is on the brink and hanging on the precipice but President Jonathan is either over-estimating his abilities and competence or is simply too naïve to approach Olusegun Obasanjo for useful counsels on the best way forward!

By Frisky Larr, NNP, Jan. 9, 2012

Not even in negotiations with hostage takers and criminals do government resort to telling lies. This is an unwritten law. There may be technical maneuvers here and there in inter-state negotiations. Examples of dishonesty and lies in political behavior however, are a rarity that may happen very scantily in international relations bearing North Korea and the Islamic Republic of Iran in mind. No matter how hard I have tried, I have been unable to find a single example of any government that has lied to and ambushed its own people in the history of politics. I am probably just too young to know.

Not long ago in 2010, political opponents of Goodluck Jonathan sought to score political points by highlighting what they considered a major weakness in the President’s personality. They resounded a slogan that “Jonathan cannot be trusted”. The slogan failed to resonate. For good reasons too! The overriding consideration then was the need for some geographical equilibrium in a leadership headcount. We needed a change and will now prefer not to regret the choice that we made.

The million-Dollar question then comes to mind. How come the President failed to give all these a thought when he sent out his Finance Minister to mislead an entire nation – his own constituency – that a decision had not been reached on the issue of discontinuing government subsidy on fuel? Why did Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala tell citizens to eye April 2012 for any decision if at all a decision was to be reached anytime soon? Why did the Minister of Information go round telling people that efforts have now been accelerated to revamp the existing four refineries as well as build the Greenfield refineries? There were truly people who smelt deception while the course was charted. But frayed nerves ended up being calmed with everyone considering how best to move the issue forward and offer proposals.

Then wham! The news came through like a meteorite. It fell from nowhere. Subsidy gone and the devil may care! Jonathan knew and still knows what would follow. The question then is how vicious and sustained he reckons reactions may be!

What is so striking is not the logical fiscal reason advanced for the need to remove fuel subsidies in the interest of long-term economic survival. No. The shocking betrayal that is unprecedented in the history of civil governance in Nigeria is the inordinate and stubborn insistence of the President that the policy will be implemented come what may. This is what Germans typically describe as an attempt to burst through the wall with the sheer force of the head. Damn the folks. Damn opinions and damn the consequences. “My view will prevail and prevail it will!”

It has become so ugly and tactless that reasons now seem to be getting lost in the depth of the turmoil. Yet we will try to navigate through. It is not like the President does not have a cogent point taking out fuel subsidy. Views are in unison across the aisle that fuel subsidy will have to go sooner than later. It is becoming clear – even though the administration does not admit it openly – that the government is helpless taking on the magnates in the oil sector leading the corruption-ridden importation process in exchange for subsidy. In a naming and shaming process, the administration published a list of oil importers. Two names featured prominently – Dangote and Tinubu. Coincidentally however, the name Dangote also features very prominently in the President’s own Economic Team much as it featured in the latest list of recipients of National awards. Sometime in October/November 2011, the name Tinubu also featured coincidentally in the list of presidential delegation on an official visit to France much as it features at the head of the leading opposition party. Could these be the same people mentioned in the naming and shaming list?

Practices in the oil sector are so rotten that the invocation of a dismal prediction for the country’s economic future is a matter of course. Crude oil is refined in illegal refineries – and we hear that refining is indeed a very easy process – and documents are cooked up to reflect importation and subsidy paid. We now hear of some marketers that do not even import anything but provide documents to claim subsidy. What we have never heard however is the arrest and prosecution of any of these offenders.

Indeed, the teeming masses are not profiting from government subsidy. The painful problem though is that many of these influential oligarchs are very close to the government and legislators and enjoy unwritten but illegal immunity from prosecution. They ensure that more intelligent solutions to the elimination of this shameful regime of importation and by implication subsidy, do not see the light of day. The President then opted for the easiest way out to pull the carpet from beneath the feet of these profiteers. By removing subsidy the way he is doing, those who refine illegally and fake documents as well as those who simply fake documents and produce nothing will end up grasping into yawning emptiness rather than having a government to claim subsidies from. When the few legitimate importers survive the test of time, they may then begin to build refineries to maximize their own profit and drag Nigeria out of the diabolical regime of fuel importation. Hiked prices will then begin to fall back in a natural process.

In fact, in one recent editorial PUNCH newspaper related how the American news outlet CNN once derided Nigeria for importing a product that it has in abundance. A laughing stock so to speak! Indeed there are countless valid reasons to make the removal of fuel subsidy comprehensible and acceptable but definitely not the argument of some hypothetical fund that will be freed and evenly redistributed for the benefit of the masses. All cogent reasons in this direction are but just one side of the precious coin. Nothing more!

As we have now seen however, fuel price increases have not gone the natural path of simply filling the gap in the aftermath of subsidy removal. This would have kept prices at N139.00 to N141.00 per liter. Reports from Nigeria however reveal that prices have skyrocketed to as far N250.00. Basic travel price from Benin to Lagos now costs N4,000.00, to Abuja N5,000.00 while Benin to Kano now costs N7,000.00. This is a price that the nomadic cattle rearer in Benin will hardly be able to afford for a casual trip in times of festivities. The price of Bread has risen. So is the cost of hairdressing and tenancy. They all fuel their generators to render services. The village woman conveying garri, rice, yam, onions and tomatoes from the village to the cities is now forced to hike her prices to meet rising costs. Yet wages are constant and governments cannot even pay minimum wages while they have fewer difficulties financing their own horrendous allowances and remunerations with the President even earmarking billions of Naira for feeding in Aso Rock.

All that aside though, experience in the deregulation of Diesel prices several years ago have shown that after a minimum of five years, the price of Diesel is still soaring rather than going down. The most unpredictable human behavior is often seen in the calculation and implementation of economically profitable ventures. In the telecommunication sector, it took hardly five years to spot the trend of a downward spiraling of prices after the sector was deregulated.

With very little purchasing power, even a single month of enduring hardship in the aftermath of fuel subsidy removal until prices begin to go down again is a murderous act on the poor peasants. The demand is simply huge for a country in which the population, according to a recent CNN report, lives on less than $2.00 a day. Another crucial truth that the deliberate campaign of lies perpetrated by President Jonathan and his cabinet has so far refused to tell is that even if the pump price of fuel truly begins to plunge after just one year and refineries built and importation stopped, the prices of other commodities will and can not be reversed. After all how will the prices of rent be reversed? How will the price of yam, rice, onion, tomatoes etc. be reversed? How will the coiffure operator drive her prices down? How will the bike rider, the bus driver and motor-park conductor roll back his price? Absolutely no way! These will be the hidden collateral troubles of an easy-go solution that is not well thought-through.

A problem is being confronted that can be solved with a variety of options. One solution option that has been widely clamored for and sounds appealing to reasonable disposition is a proactive government drive to ensure functional refineries to kill the regime of fuel importation. However, no less a figure than Christine Lagarde, Head of the International Monetary Fund declared in a recent visit to Nigeria that the government should do its best to convince the folks that government has no business refining fuel for public consumption. Yet Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala still looked reporters in the eyes and lied to them that the IMF had no hand in the policy presently being implemented in Nigeria.

Whereas commonsense and logical reasoning foretells that an effective government involvement in the refining business will not only kill importation, it will also boost exportation. Its realization will however mean stepping very hard on the toes of those Dangotes and Tinubus of the oil sector and it may backfire on the President himself. Little surprise then that the government is now suddenly identifying marketers that have been defrauding the state of subsidy money for several years even though they have been importing nothing! Now they can be identified and dealt with because they are suspected of funding civil protest. Such is the panic and hypocrisy in government circle after starting a fire that may prove difficult to quench.

What the President has so far failed to consider however, is the fact that Nigeria as a country has no single welfare program in place while Christine Lagarde’s country France, pays Unemployment benefits, Housing allowances etc. to poorer people in society amongst several other welfare programs. Unfortunately, Nigerian leaders in their infinite wisdom prefer to compare Nigeria with countries they may never be able to match in the coming 20 years in welfare considerations. Government management of refinery that should ordinarily be tailored towards efficiency given the discipline-inclined tendency of Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala can only serve as government’s own minimum contribution to public welfare.

As it now stands however, the obstinate ambushing of Nigerians to save the President’s face before Lagarde and some international politicians is sparking off a chain reaction with unpredictable outcome because people are furious and wild. One can only pray that Boko Haram, disgruntled MEND outcasts and a teeming majority of Nigerians do not find common grounds sooner or later, in the fact that rendering the nation ungovernable will be in the best interest of the country since the enemy of my enemy is always a legitimate friend. If unchecked pretty soon, terrorism may soon become easier to perpetrate than it already is. One can only ask just what went through Jonathan’s mind to time a diabolical policy of this nature for a period of an already persisting socio-political upheaval. President Eva Morales of Bolivia is still a living example of how a President can honorably bow out of a self-inflicted and narrow-minded, bigoted cul-de-sac. President Jonathan has the choice to avoid doing more damages while he still has the time!