Leonard Karshima Shilgba is an Associate Professor of Mathematics with the American University of Nigeria, Chair of the Middle Belt Alliance and founder and overseer of the Bible Clinic Ministries.
TEL: +234 (0) 8055024356 EMAIL: shilgba@yahoo.com; Web: www.middlebeltalliance.org

The man in the North-East shall die in seven months, I am told. July, 2013 shall be it? But why is this so? I am told, “It shall be to your benefit.” My benefit, our benefit? They plan like they are divine beings who have control of the future. Terrible things shall happen. It shall not be the usual way. The princes shall cry; terror shall strike through them. I warned in 2010; I alerted in 2009. I speak again what I have seen. Can the wise understand? Will they ignore? Well, it is time to rescue the nation. This year is a year of judgment. But there are some who can’t discern. But we warn all the same.

The coalition of political parties whose only objective is to displace the ruling party shall fail. Their driving passion is too simplistic. Their objective should have been to win over the people. The people do not see an alternative to the ruling party. By the way, the men and women in those opposition parties, where have they come from? What is their pedigree? What have they said in the past? Which political parties have they migrated from? The PDP is a failure. The opposition parties, have they fared better?

I wrote thus shortly after the mass protest in 2012 against the removal of fuel subsidy by President Jonathan:

“Western education or the lack thereof cannot explain the contradictions I see. A man should know their basic interest at least. Probably, the more sophisticated or, let me say, the latent, may escape public consciousness, and this can be excused. But how am I supposed to excuse betrayal? I should expect Nigerians to realize that we have made the society we live in. Does poverty make men foolish; or does it impart madness? I know that poverty can inject the virus of anger, and we are today witnesses to this. But a mixture of anger and foolishness hardly yields dividend. I believe that the story of Nigeria cannot be true without a chapter on the betrayal of courage.

We have lost (and still do) heroes to the opposing camp. Every hero lost does damage to the confidence the people have in the army of patriots that remain in the trenches. The opposing camp is the camp with supposedly delegated power to wrest for the people the right and means to live the dream of humanity on the planet of divinity. I know that desperation can be very deceptive not only for the individual but also for the people that place their hopes in the individual. When the opposing camp has won more converts than it has lost the future of that nation becomes much bleaker.

Desperation for change and national redemption must diminish neither our perception of the price for our labor nor the danger of unequal yoking. When sincere zeal teams up with cunning pretentious resolve a nation loses her heroes; and no nation makes progress that kills off her heroes this way. It always remains true that evil communication corrupts good morals.

I am not against offering public service for public good. But when personal service to a sinking monarch or head of state is disguised in the garb of public service an insidious poison has been concocted. The hero must value his service and dispense it when certain minimal conditions are met, otherwise his service shall be trampled upon and he suffers loss. The next few years under the same leadership in Nigeria shall confer only damage. I see no sincerity in the present Nigerian government; for this the future is not bright. I see only darkness for the next few years unless the Nigerians pick up courage and pile pressure on Jonathan’s government to do what is right; and what is right is quite obvious.”

A new crop of leadership shall emerge out of the darkness of judgment. I should proclaim to Nigerians who are watching, watchmen at the gate of righteousness, lift up your heads for your redemption draws near. Tame your lusts; watch out for traps. It shall turn into bitterness in their mouths. They shall pour out in the streets. And we all shall see it. It shall not be the usual way. You will all see it; then understanding shall replace the present puerile ignorance. Welcome to the morning!

Leonard Shilgba is an Associate Professor of Mathematics with the American University of Nigeria and Founder/Overseer of the Bible Clinic Ministries. He also serves as the chairman of the Middle Belt Alliance (www.middlebeltalliance.org).
Tel: 08055024356
Email: shilgba@middlebeltalliance.org; bibleclinicministries@gmail.com

There is a trend that must be pointed out. The Nigerian legislature has joined the choir of national lamentation rather than check the excesses, impunity, and negligence of the executive. The lawmakers do not presently retain the respect of President Jonathan and his government. The resolutions or motions of either the senate or House of Representatives are treated with disdain. They have been referred to as “mere opinions” by the presidency without any sanctions. The threats by the national assembly have turned out to be just pitiable bluffs. They had demanded 100 per cent implementation of the 2012 budget by September, 2012 or some sanctions would be delivered by it on the executive. Besides being unreasonable to demand 100 per cent implementation of a budget only in the third quarter of a year and when the commencement of implementation was supposedly in the second quarter of the same year, the national assembly ridiculed itself again as that deadline came and passed without as much as a whimper from that supposedly august body of serious lawmakers. The Nigerian people have spent so much of their resources and expectations on the national assembly with nothing to show for it. They have become an assembly of weaklings whose words mean nothing.

There is no democracy without an effective and productive legislature. What victories has the current national assembly won for the Nigerian people since May, 2011? Trillions of naira have been spent on “fuel subsidy” by the executive without appropriation, yet the national assembly has failed to react strongly. The Nigerian people were forced, in spite of the lame protestation of the legislature, to pay 50 percent more for petrol in 2012, yet, the senate, toward the end of 2012, approved additional N 161.6 billion for Jonathan to spend on fuel subsidy payments, bringing the total expenditure on fuel subsidy in 2012 to N 1.06 trillion! The national assembly only whines about amounts that the executive requests it to approve for funding; but in the end, they are approved however indefensible! They have failed to punish; they have failed to bite.

They are simply the rubber stamp of the executive. When the national assembly grandstands publicly, it is only a matter of time before the legislators defer to the lusts and greed of the executive. The 2013 budget has passed without any significant mopping up of the fatty inclusions by the executive that added no real value. I agree that the recurrent expenditure has been pruned down by N 100 billion, and the savings have been assigned to capital expenditure. I agree that the crude oil benchmark has been raised from $ 75 to $ 79, which has reduced deficit spending from N 1.03 trillion to N 887 billion.

But what is strange is that nothing in either the budget proposal by the executive or the budget appropriation by the legislature has addressed a huge source of bleeding on the commonwealth. There is no provision in the budget for building of refineries. If in spite of the reduction of fuel subsidy spending in 2012, Nigeria spent more than one trillion naira on the subsidy, it should be a matter of concern to the national assembly that Nigeria does not own refineries that can refine both for domestic and foreign markets. It is not a secret that some legislators and the executive would like the scrapping of fuel subsidy because of “corruption in its implementation.”

This is an open confession of the incompetence of the Jonathan government. If a government cannot defend the people against economic predators then it has outlived its usefulness. Should the 2004 pension act be abrogated and pension payment outlawed in Nigeria only because of the corruption that has been perpetrated in the management of the pension fund? Should government departments where corrupt practices have been established be scrapped then?
What is the philosophy that guided the formulation of the 2013 budget? I heard that President Jonathan was hopeful that 2013 would be “better than 2012”, with the assurance that jobs would be created. If jobs are going to be created we should find evidence in the 2013 budget:

Public works

All federal roads in Nigeria are in a terrifying state of disrepair. Road contracts in Nigeria are inflated beyond shame or restraint of natural conscience. A road that is less than 100 kilometers long could be awarded for N 100 billion! Well, going by this obscene tradition of contract costing, the N 1.6 trillion voted for capital expenditure in the 2013 budget cannot complete even 2000 kilometer-length of roads (Do pardon the many kilometers I have stated). This should be considered against the background that there are about 30,000 kilometers of federal roads in Nigeria, almost all of which are dotted by yawning craters, broken bridges, and sharp-edged polygonical ditches. The state of the most important road in Nigeria (The Lagos-Ibadan expressway) should tell us about the comedy of governance in this “Giant of Africa”. Maiduguri-Yola-Jalingo-Gboko-Otukpo-Enugu federal road is a disaster to drive on. Enugu-Port Harcourt federal road is legendary in the tale of failed governance. Ayangba-Ajaokuta-Okene road is a national disgrace. Ibadan-Ilorin-Abuja-Kaduna road is not better. Ore-Benin road has become a singsong without a beautiful end. I can go on. What economy can a government hope to build where road transportation has been so neglected in spite of yearly budget rituals?

I have read about the chest-beating by the federal government that it has revived rail commute between Lagos and Kano on the colonial era single tracks that we used during our student days in the 1980s. The cars used on those tracks are so outdated and uncomfortable in the tropical heat. This is not how to build a nation. In an age of fast-moving air-conditioned cabin cars on rail, the Jonathan government is hypocritically siphoning public funds in the name of “rehabilitation of colonial-day railways”, being part of a government that had cancelled a contract for the construction of a dual track railway, which project would have been completed in 2010, and on which trains should have travelled at 160 kilometers per hour, and at a time when Nigeria had more than 20 billion US dollars in the Excess Crude account.

The aviation industry is in a trauma of its own. Many lives have been claimed through plane and helicopter crashes in 2012 alone. The summary is that transportation in Nigeria is a frightening experience. Now, where will job-creating investments come from when transportation has become a trap in Nigeria? The 2013 budget may likely go the way of previous budgets with no significant accomplishments.

Legislative oversight functions:

Available evidence has shown that we do not yet have a legislature that is principled and dogged enough to make the executive succumb to good sense in managing of public resources. How can a group of contract-chasing legislators ensure effective implementation of budgets? Failure of both implementation of yearly budgets and sanctioning of corrupt and incompetent public officials offer little hope that the 2013 budget will be any different. What kind of transformation have Nigeria’s legislators and the executive undergone to assure Nigerians of “better things in 2013”? The greed, lack of empathy, and the cavalier attitude towards legacy building by Nigeria’s public officials tell us the story of the 2013 budget. It sounded awful but familiar, and it changed nothing except worsen things.
It is my strong conviction that nothing changes that is left the same. What is so different about the 2013 budget that should excite? Well, some would respond that the “early passage of the budget would allow the executive enough time to implement.” I have a question, then.

Has late appropriation of previous budgets been the true cause of poor implementation of past budgets, averaging only 40 per cent? Deliberate delay in allocation of funds to ministries, departments, and agencies has stifled execution of capital projects in the past. Poor and duplicitous supervision by relevant legislative committees is another reason for poor implementation of past budgets. Lack of punishment of contractors of failed or failing and abandoned projects and their collaborating civil servants has only emboldened impunity. What assurances do we have that things would change? Better still, what evidence do we have that the government of President Jonathan is ready to protect the commonwealth? Let me say why I believe Jonathan’s government will only get worse.

A government that pays little attention to matters of principle, integrity, reputation and perception cannot succeed. Mr. Tony Anenih who has been accused, from the time when Mr. Orji Kalu was a governor, of embezzling billions of naira budgeted for construction of federal roads when he was Minister of works, has just been appointed by Mr. Jonathan as chairman of the Nigeria Ports Authority. Mr. Doyin Okupe, whom the Benue state government has accused of collecting money to build roads in the state, which he failed to do, is presently serving in the government of the president. The current Minister of Petroleum supervises the NNPC and DPR, both of whom have been fingered in the mismanagement of the fuel subsidy funds. Yet, she sits pretty well in her job without compunction. The report of an investigative panel pretentiously set up by her with regard to oil revenues has been consigned to the bin. These are no cheering signs.

The Nigerian people can only rely on people power to pressure the government towards the desired course. It takes being purposeful and consistent. It requires Nigerian elite who have refused to be soiled to lead the struggle. Nigerians don’t need elite who were on the other side of the oppressors, who now being shut out have suddenly become civil rights activists. But the people can only get what they deserve. Their courage tells when they are deserving of the desired.

Leonard Karshima Shilgba is an Associate Professor of mathematics with the American University of Nigeria and Chair of the Middle Belt Alliance (www.middlebeltalliance.org )
Email: Shilgba@middlebeltalliance.org
Tel: 08055024356\

By Dr. Leonard K. Shilgba | Yola, Nigeria | Dec. 21, 2012 -

“We must be ready to dare all for our country. For history does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or the timid. We must acquire proficiency in defense and display stamina in purpose. We must be willing, individually and as a Nation, to accept whatever sacrifices may be required of us. A people that values its privileges above its principles soon loses both.

These basic precepts are not lofty abstractions, far removed from matters of daily living. They are laws of spiritual strength that generate and define our material strength. Patriotism means equipped forces and a prepared citizenry.” The underline is done by me for emphasis.

Few days ago now that I write this essay that you are reading, I received in my university office a son of a past senator of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. He told me that based on what he knew of Nigerian politicians from his privileged position, Nigerian public officials would only buy into my ideas of development if I could make them see the personal benefit they would derive from such lofty ideas. On my hope that the Nigerian youth with whom I am resolved to engage for the future that I envisage would get the intended epiphany, he attempted, probably without intent, to pour cold water, with those words which I paraphrase: “Sir, even if what you seek to accomplish would be to the ultimate benefit of the Nigerians, they must expect material benefits from you in order to sustain their interest.” This young man had very low opinion of politicians from my part of the country, about whom he revealed very discouraging facts.

It has become apparent that President Jonathan, many of our governors and other public officials (elected or selected) in Nigeria do not lack knowledge of the good things they must do in order to equip the Nigerian citizens with both the knowledge and external resources required for adequate productivity on which societies thrive and survive. The exhibits are the numerous “vision” statements and “transformation agendas” that litter the shelves of government department offices across Nigeria. What they lack is the will or boldness required. Most importantly, they are afraid for embarrassing exposures because most of them are morally bankrupt, and without good conscience.

Let us seek to understand our common leadership tragedy through the common utterances and expectations of the Nigerian on your street, in your towns, at your place of work, and at your school.

“We must celebrate your political appointment. God has provided food for us,” (or its variants) is a common statement by Nigerians.  They view appointment to a public office as an opportunity to make a living rather than to serve the people. The senator’s son told me about “compensation appointments”, and invited me to Abuja during the Christmas break because, as he informed me, President Jonathan would reshuffle his cabinet and bring in new faces, obviously, to take their compensating positions at the feast table. You had better believe that millions of naira would be spent by those “lucky” fellows on festive parties to celebrate their “achievement”.

The Nigerian who complains against the “corruption” of public officials would eagerly accept similar opportunities to engage in the same graft they complain about. When a friend of mine took leave of absence from his professorial position this year to become an “Adviser on strategy” to the governor of his state, a non-Nigerian professor colleague of mine asked me, “Is it better for him to leave his professorial position to take such position in his state?” I must confess that I did not know how to answer the question. It is dignifying to serve as an advisor to the governor of your state or president of your country, if your advice would be useful and accepted most of the time, and if you have access to those who have appointed you, rather than being invited into the club simply to feast at the table when the employer does not truly have need of your “advice”.

We have hundreds of advisors in some states, and only 365 days in a year or only 260 work days in a year (assuming there are no holidays). How many minutes would a governor have to spend quality time with those advisors in a year? I saw on news hours before I sat down to write that President Jonathan had asked for “prayers and advice” from Nigerians. The president does not need more advice; he must have the courage to work with the many pieces of advice many of us have freely provided on education, revenue generation, accountability, smart governance, job creation, provision and maintenance of infrastructure, fiscal responsibility, etc. In fact, a patriot, Dele Momodu has lately volunteered a sequence of free open letters to Jonathan to help him improve on the quality of leadership he is not providing. On prayers, I request Nigerians to ask God to bring strategic discomfort to Jonathan, to ruin the cordial relationship he has maintained with his evil godfathers and fellow thieves, and to bring him public humiliation. And if these would not force him to action, then, that God would send him on exile far away from Aso Rock. Jonathan deserves neither pity nor advice. He deserves hard times that force a timid president to throw off fear, and a corrupt president to repent, make restitution, and resign.

Are Nigerians ready for a new nation? When, out of curiosity, I read through some of the comments by some Nigerians on my essays about Nigeria, I am sad at how some of them think that the solution to our social decadence is the splitting up of Nigeria into smaller units. Even if that is the ultimate destiny, unless and until we have mutually enlightened ourselves and prepared our people on the two principles that President Eisenhower spoke about, we may only thereby succeed in spreading the concentration points of social conflagration and unease, and not cure the ailment.

“History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or the timid,” said President Eisenhower. This is the first principle Nigerians must learn about. Freedom cannot be sustained by the weak and timid. Our resolve is very weak. I have received numerous text messages and mails from readers assuring me of “support.” I am not sure I need “support.” Rather, Nigerians need the social orientation that will strengthen them, for a man of knowledge increases in strength. One reason why the political opposition in Nigeria has remained weak is because of its impatience and lack of investment in social education.  While the opposition is distracted by the simple pastime of excoriating attacks on the government, it lacks coordination in social education of the people—What resources are available to the governments in Nigeria; what percentage of public resources is spent on a few public officials; how much inflation of public project costs there is; what powers under the constitution do the people have, etc. These are some of the questions that the opposition needs to assist the people answer. I also know that millions of Nigerians do not have access to the internet. But the opposition has an opportunity here.

The vacuum of neglect created by ruling parties across Nigeria must be quickly filled up by the opposition. Irregular conferences in Abuja, Lagos, Port Harcourt, or Kaduna by some opposition parties and “civil rights” activists will not be enough. Along with rallies and town meetings in towns and villages across all local government areas in Nigeria, the opposition must put together professionals such as medical doctors, environmentalists, civil rights lawyers, and social workers to provide services and assistance to the people free of charge well before elections and in spite of electoral fortunes. In these revolutionary efforts, informed and principled scholars and columnists can be invited to educate the people and address questions that the people may have. There are no short-cuts in social transformation of a people. The various social groups on social media circles provide veritable recruiting grounds for volunteers. The opposition, putting together germane resources will do better than individuals like us planning and holding rallies. An individual is an easier picking than an organized group. I speak from experience. Gani Fawehinmi was a one-man soldier. Such tactic cannot succeed in Nigeria. Numbers! Organized numbers! That is the game.

The Hamas in Palestine won the heart of the Palestinian people by saving lives where Yasser Arafat failed. Eventually, the Hamas won the confidence and votes of the people in 2006 and formed government.

The second principle I would like to discuss is what President Eisenhower said: “A people that values its privileges above its principles soon loses both.”

The frequent criss-crossing of politicians from one political party to another and the usual betrayals of “social critics”, “principled columnists”, and “progressives” have given away the Nigerian elite as unstable people that treasure privileges above principles. This is a national tragedy. We are engaged with a deadly squad that has got executive powers, legislative powers, judicial powers, military powers, and business monopoly, all with the blessings of the compromised traditional and religious leadership.

We are in a long marathon to equip our people with both the knowledge and strength that they need to resist injustice and corruption intelligently, with stamina and staying power. If the presently disorganized opposition wishes to wrest power from the corrupt and inefficient national ruling party, it must look beyond a mere merger of political parties for the puerile purpose of winning elections.  The opposition must give the people a reason to trust it. For now, nothing else will work, and the people hardly can find a substitute for the ruling national party. But the people are being confused by the unstable behavior of the opposition that dines with the ruling party at their nocturnal feasts only to scream invectives against it at noon.

If the Nigerian people want a better country, we must invest in ourselves. For only when the people and their politics is purged shall there be a better future.

Leonard Karshima Shilgba is an Associate Professor of Mathematics with the American University of Nigeria (www.aun.edu.ng) and chairman of the Middle Belt Alliance (www.middlebeltalliance.org}

TEL: +234 (0) 8055024356    EMAIL: shilgba@middlebeltalliance.org

By Dr. Leoanrd K. Shilgba | Yola, Nigeria | Dec. 14, 2012 -

In my state, Benue, a shameless display of impunity was staged by a professor of
criminology, Professor Phillip Ahire, who had served as secretary of the Uwais
electoral reform committee that was set up by President Yar’Adua to address the
fraudulent electoral exercises in Nigeria. On November 24, 2012, Professor
Ahire presided over the conduct of elections to local councils in the state in
which the ruling party, the PDP, scored a perfect hundred per cent result,
winning council chairman seats in all the twenty-three local councils of the
state. The opposition party, with not less than 10 members in the
twenty-nine-member state house of assembly, simply gave up in the face of this
day light coup against the people’s will. The professor thereafter went to his
church in Makurdi to “give thanks” for the “successful” conduct of elections. He
thanked the people for their “prayers” that made the elections “successful.”
The people could not hold their peace in church any longer. They shouted back,
“Liar!” It took a while to calm down the people. What audacity! What
provocation!

If the Nigerian people have had their electoral choices ignored repeatedly with impunity, it is
because the electoral commissions and their staffers have always supplied the
weapons for this coup. For a professor of criminology to be so brazenly
involved in such a crime as robbing the people of their supposed right to
choose the people they would like to lead them, it makes me wonder what sort of
things he researched on about criminology. I have learned that Professor Ahire
is a church elder. Shame on religion in Nigeria! I would not blame the
politicians; rather, I blame the referees of elections in Nigeria. The Benue
example I have given is typical of conduct of elections in Nigeria, with only a
few exceptions.

Do we need electoral commissions in the form that they exist today? Is it wrong to stage a
counter coup when you have been overthrown by a group of mutineers? If the
Nigerian people should decide to go wild one day against perceived electoral
fraud against their choices, would that be wrong? Oh, they say two wrongs don’t
make a right. I understand that dictum. But I ask, is it wrong to take steps to
defend yourself when there is no other way? Electoral commissions in Nigeria
declare whom they will as the “winner” in an election contest. The ruling
party, through its dominance in the legislature, fixes a 180 day- limitation on
electoral dispute litigations; the judiciary, as a complicit player, encourages
and permits delays until that time lapses, and justice is denied. The people
are left seething in anger. What other options do the people have other than a
violent reaction? When people have come to lose confidence in a constitutional
process, this should be seen as a harbinger of violence. When justice is
perceived to have been denied repeatedly, and the people, because they have no
hope in the courts, decide not to go to court anymore, one of two must happen.
Violence shall soon erupt or open rebellion against “authority” will happen.
Withdrawal of support from an illegal authority is certain. And there are ways
of doing this.

1. The people may constitute
   “Enforcing Defenders” (EDs) and refuse to pay taxes.
2. The people may refuse call to
   “cooperation”.
3. The people may withhold any
   information, ideas, vision, and help that those forcefully and illegally
   occupying positions of authority may need.
4. Gang groups may emerge
   comprising those who feel cheated, to terrorise.

Is Nigeria genuinely ready for any of the above? Do the TIPs (Thieves In Power) truly
underestimate the possibilities in the Nigerian?

It is my strong view that Nigeria can do without her “independent” electoral commissions. Each
town, precinct, and village should have its election committees during any
election. Members of such committees shall be representatives of candidates or
political parties involved in such elections, local youth group
representatives, local women group representatives, local labour
representatives, student representatives, the disabled representatives, civil
groups and intellectual representatives, all resident in such town, precinct,
or village. The committee shall be formalized and put on oath in the respective
local government areas by the local government chief judge or magistrate. Funding
of elections shall be done through budgetary processes of the respective
legislatures.

At the local council level, the local councils shall approve funds directly to the election committees in the towns and
villages in the local government area. For state elections, the state houses of
assembly shall approve state funds for the elections, which shall be sent to
the local councils for distribution. For national elections, the national
assembly shall approve federal funds for the elections, which shall be sent to
the local election committees through the state houses of assembly. In
addition, political parties, through their local chapters, shall be free to
make donations for logistics and allowances for the committee members. Election
results shall be announced by those committees on the same day of elections without
necessity for transmission to any collation centres, and that would be final. Disputes
of election results should be made with respect to specified towns, precincts,

or villages, and the respective election committees should have the
responsibility of defending the results in a formal court of law. Where fraud
is proved, members of the committee should each get custodian sentencing of
between 10 and 15 years with no option of fine or parole or state pardon; in
addition, a bye election shall be conducted in such precinct, town, or village
by another election committee. Where an election committee is denied of funds
from sources I have specified, all legislators (from local to national levels)
within such precincts, towns, or villages shall lose their seats in the
respective legislative houses.

Election materials:

1. It shall be the responsibility
   of each election committee to design an election process that best suits its
   precinct, town, or village.
2. It shall be the sole
   responsibility of an election committee to decide on which form of
   identification to use to determine residents.
3. Lower age limit for voting
   shall remain 18 years for the whole country.
4. There shall be a maximum of
   three electoral materials—Electoral result sheet, which must be signed by at
   least two-thirds of all members of the respective election committee to make
   the result valid; electronic register of all voters who have registered to vote
   at the precinct, town, or village; and ballot papers (where applicable).
5. The printing of ballot papers
   (if such would be used rather than some electronic device) must be done locally
   by the respective election committee, if feasible, or within the respective
   state.
6. The voter register shall be
   compiled by each election committee during each election, and must be completed
   at most one month before election. The voter register must include exactly  one of the following for each voter—Driver’s
   license number, international passport number, national identification number, and
   state identification number. If a voter has none of these, he or she is not
   qualified to vote in Nigeria. There shall be no voter’s card. On Election Day,
   the voter must present the identification card they used to register before
   casting a vote.

At the end of each election process, the election committee shall render account to the
Finance committee of the respective house of assembly. If cleared, it shall
then stand dissolved after conclusion of all related litigations on electoral
disputes. A formal ceremony of dissolution and absolution shall be conducted by
the respective chief judge of the state. All unspent funds shall be paid into
the account of the state for public use.

If we don’t get to the point where the choices of voters are not excluded from governance, a
forceful overthrow of the Tips must take place in order to rescue Nigeria. This
is a grave possibility we must not ignore.

Leonard Karshima Shilgba is an Associate Professor of
Mathematics with the American University of Nigeria (www.aun.edu.ng) and chairman of the Middle Belt Alliance (www.middlebeltalliance.org}

TEL: +234 (0) 8055024356    EMAIL: shilgba@middlebeltalliance.org.

By Leonard Karshima Shilgba | Yola, Nigeria | Dec. 4, 2012 –

Second, Nigerians must boldly start causing embarrassment for those corrupt trees at public functions, in the mass media, and at every opportunity they have got. They love honour, but we must give them dishonour. They love high places, but we must offer them low seats. Intellectuals who are so afraid of the hard life, that they must be obsequious to those corrupt trees have put their education in dispute. Shame on all of you who have delayed our redemption by your sell-out! Woe to your betrayals! If our redeeming grace as a nation has been delayed, it is because of quasi intellectuals such as journalists, lawyers, and other professionals who have cheaply sold themselves to visionless rulers in the corridors of power in exchange for wealth and positions that they will never enjoy in peace.
Third, print out and distribute fliers that question the roles of your pastors, bishops, overseers, general superintendent, imams, and papas in pricking the conscience of public leaders. Those must not be allowed to continue straining at gnats while swallowing camels. Let them recover their lost moral voice and point the accusing finger at failed political leadership. Let them wag the finger at President Jonathan and your state governors and say, “You are the troublers of Nigeria!” With immense political powers, Mr Jonathan and many of the governors have simply washed their hands and looked away like Pontius Pilate. With awesome executive powers to punish and bring down the gavel on corrupt public officials and contractors of failed public projects and their collaborators, Jonathan has instead chosen to hide under useless and preposterous committees which he has regularly used as either lullabies or red herrings.
What about us? Who in the political leadership of Nigeria will seek to please us? Nigeria needs just one man with the powers of President Jonathan, who will effectively use such powers to rescue us and not to harass us. But alas, Jonathan cannot because he has already corrupted himself. He has compromised his office by running greedily after gain. A thief cannot punish other thieves. Tens of billions of dollars of public wealth have been stolen and wasted under Jonathan’s watch and he looks away; why? It is because he is part of the thieves. He is guilty! He defends evil; he takes not seriously the misuse of public office by his appointed public officials. Nigeria deserves better.
Prayers cannot save us, but prayers with steady actions will. Prayers cannot make a better nation for us, but prayers with bold actions shall hasten the day of reckoning when the shepherd shall beg the sheep for mercy, and when the sheep shall come under a new shepherd. Any opportunity of provocation that Nigerians shall get in the days to come must be used as the last stroke.
Nobody on earth shall redeem Nigerians but themselves. The leopards in political power will never change their spots. They are too greedy to think about us. The country is wasted and is yet wasting away. For the sake of your children, throw off fear. For them and your loved ones alone, hold not your peace. Let no one deceive you; help cannot come from outside of you. Help is within you. The leader is within. What about us?
……..
Leonard Karshima Shilgba is an Associate Professor of Mathematics with the American University of Nigeria (www.aun.edu.ng) and chairman of the Middle Belt Alliance (www.middlebeltalliance.org}
TEL: +234 (0) 8055024356 EMAIL: shilgba@middlebeltalliance.org.

EDUCATION:

The Editor of the Guardian newspapers, Mr Martins Oloja, asked what the president was doing to correct the disappointing rating of Nigerian universities. President Jonathan responded by painting a more disappointing scenario, and concluded that state governors should also be shown the report of a committee he had set up to compile a report on the state of both federal and state universities. That’s it! Did the president offer any solutions? He offered none! Any defence for Nigeria’s rating? President Jonathan said that he noticed that there were quite a number of countries in the world whose universities were not well ranked either!

Nigeria deserves better. In 2010, in my article titled, Goodluck Jonathan: Luck is not Enough, I wrote: “If I stood before the unapproachable throne of the Almighty and He asked me to choose one item from the list—Luck, Strength, Courage, Understanding, and Grace, I would definitely not choose Luck. Let me tell you why. There is an illusion that comes with luck right unto the doorsteps of a man’s soul. Luck creates an illusion of achievement where there is no labour. Luck disarms a man of the necessary barometer of self-assessment; it darkens the thin veil that shields human faults. You have not arrived on the wings of luck; rather the journey has just started when luck pushes you unto the dais which is only fit for those who have tasted both the bitter pill of defeat and the sweet wine of success. Luck carries with it the burden of responsibility, to prove yourself to those who hold the consensus that you are undeserving.

Luck does not qualify a man for leadership; it questions his ability to lead. Luck does not necessarily come with excellence; it makes you the cynosure of prying eyes, coloured with the question, ‘Can you excel; can you distinguish yourself now?’ The burden of leadership cannot be borne by those who never prepared for the opportunity. Truly, if you did not prepare for an opportunity before it came, you might waste it. Luck could be a wonderful thing, but that is if you prepared for it. The winds must have blown in your direction the suspicion that the opportunity was coming. That nudge that whispers the question: ‘What if…?’ must be unmistaken.” I am more convinced of the rectitude of those words now!

On Monetization Law:

The president was asked by the Guardian editor why his government was not implementing the monetization policy without formally taking steps to put it aside. Mr Oloja cited two examples how the official houses of the senate president and speaker of the house of representatives were bought by those public officers and yet Jonathan’s government permitted new budget votes to build new official quarters for the current holders of these offices, which votes the current officers claim are not sufficient. Jonathan replied by saying that the policy “is good in theory” but difficult to implement. He gives an example of a government project supervisor who needs an official vehicle to supervise public projects. To him, that justifies the abuse of public office that the monetization policy sought to correct, which resulted in improvement in capital expenditures above recurrent expenditures. This beats me! Do you remember when during the Yar’Adua-Jonathan government, they started chipping away at the cornerstone of the monetization policy, first with buying a “pool of vehicles”, which was contrary to the Certain Political, Public And Judicial Office Holders (Salaries And Allowances, etc.), Act 2002? Because Nigerians kept quiet President Jonathan has come out boldly to declare that an act of the national assembly cannot be implemented. The growing cost of running government, with expanded number of ministries post 2007, increased number of cabinet-level ministers, surging numbers of assistants, special assistants, advisers, senior advisors, etc., and the concomitant over-bloated overhead costs all combine to shoot up recurrent expenditures of the Nigerian government under President Jonathan. And he spoke in a cavalier manner about this.

When you heard of N 480 billion statutory transfers in the 2013 budget proposal of the Jonathan government, know that this is because of the negligence of the act I have referred to above and the breach of the monetization policy, which makes beneficiaries of such transfers (the national assembly, judiciary, and commissions recognized by the constitution) to take scandalous sums of money, yet producing nothing or little in return. Who can check this abuse when the legislature and judiciary in Nigeria collaborate with the executive to waste our commonwealth? If Nigerians will not collaborate, in spite of their mutual suspicions, and work together to enlighten the uninformed about the extravagance and lack of good conscience of the ruling party, and stir them against supporting the party, only a violent overthrow shall redeem this nation if it will not violently come crashing down.

When reminded by the editor of the Sunday Mirror, Gbemi Olujobi how Nigerians were fascinated by the personal story of his humble background, and voted for him, only to be disappointed by the extravagant lifestyle of his government, epitomized by lavish expenditures on feeding by the presidency, Mr Jonathan responded by naively saying that, “I eat only twice a day.” How did Nigerians get for themselves such a president who fails to understand simple question? He surprised probably not a few when he claimed ignorance of how much the presidency spends on food and drinks! That nails it. Our president is not leading; he has surrendered governance to those Nigerians did not vote to be their president. President Jonathan, shamelessly went on to say that, “Nigeria is an important country,” implying the expenditures on food and drinks that some folks are complaining about are none issues.

Halliburton scam:

When asked why his government was prevaricating about trying culprits entangled in the Halliburton bribery scandal, Jonathan used an old and stale line, “It is better to let criminals go free than to punish one innocent fellow.” This is an incongruous dictum adoption. The fact is that Nigeria does not have a government that is ready to punish rogues; and when punishment against evil is delayed, men do not learn to do right. President Jonathan would need decades to sort out the “innocent” from criminals before taking the Halliburton scandal criminals to court. In my article, “A Lessons on power for Dr Goodluck Jonathan” (2010), I wrote about the president: “One obvious mistake Dr Jonathan has consistently made since the resolution by the National Assembly on February 9th, 2010, making him the Acting President and Commander-In-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Federation is to still think like a Vice-President. Until a man changes both the content and construction of his mind upon the thrust into the limelight of power his efficacy in the new role will be mediocre. Until Dr Jonathan re-creates himself, he shall remain insipid, boring, and of no positive effect whatsoever to the exigencies of the time. My reading is that Dr Jonathan is scared of many Ministers of the Federation and certain individuals whom he considers ‘very powerful.’ You cannot be an effective leader when you are afraid of the people over whom you should preside.”

Security:

President Jonathan was asked why he did not care to visit the troubled region of Nigeria (North Eastern states such as Borno and Yobe, which have been hard hit by Boko Haram). He rather spent time talking about some incidental reference to the Odi raid of 2000. He provided no answer for his failure to visit Nigerians in Borno and Yobe states who don’t feel they have a president who cares; neither did he provide hope about resolving the security challenges of Nigeria.

On electricity power supply in Nigeria, I guess you have read how the Jonathan government has promised to grant tax holiday to manufacturers that can generate their electricity! Do you know the implication? The leadership failure of Jonathan’s government will lead to loss of tax revenue because of this holiday. You may have noticed that in some parts of Nigeria (I say this advisedly because I don’t know where you are reading this article from) electricity supply has deteriorated in the past few weeks since the exit of Professor Barth Nnaji. The president promised during the media chat that he would fix the electricity problem and the Benin-Ore road (on which one of his ministers shed tears about two years ago).

This statement was made in response to a comment by a Nigerian viewer who had tweeted that if President Jonathan could fix the road and electricity problem of Nigeria, he would become a great Nigerian president. I would wish for Jonathan to become a great Nigerian president. But he cannot become one without showing a good knowledge and understanding of what our problems are, without having the will to tackle them without fear, and without a sense of urgency that Nigerians expect of him. His answers were uninspiring. He did not speak to the fears and discouragement of Nigerians. He failed to show he was on the side of the people. Jonathan has lost (if at all he had it in the first place) any moral authority to engage the national assembly on their excesses, for they bear the same kind of spots. The Nigerian judiciary is openly corrupt (Jonathan was reminded during the chat about the latest rating of Nigeria as the second most corrupt country); anarchy has set in the land.

The presidential media chat was a reminder to Nigerians that they should be ready to suffer all kinds of indignities and torments for the next two and half years. The three arms of government have collaborated to oppress Nigerians. Now they govern by “committees”. The president spoke quite a bit about committees he has set up, and how ignorant Nigerians are for not noticing when he is implementing the recommendations of those committees. Well, I know that committees have never been helpful, at least in my adult days in Nigeria. When a matter has been handed over to a “committee”, it is only a euphemistic expression of taking it off the public menu of engagement.

Every nation that practices governance through elected representatives must define so clearly what democracy should mean to its people. Such definition comes in form of rituals that distinguish it from other nations. The ability to invent forms of governance that are specific, meaningful, acceptable to the majority of the people, realistic, and time-bound sets a nation apart as intelligent in its conduct. A nation consists of people who have agreed to live and interact together on the basis of laws, not necessarily given by a divine being, but given by the people to themselves in the form of a constitution. And if the people have given to themselves a constitution, it is then a given that such a constitution should not be injurious to their interest, not be restrictive on their aspiration, and not vitiate provisions that are generous to them through some other clauses in the same constitution. Is this the best we can afford for ourselves? Is this the best president we can have for ourselves? Is this the best legislature or judiciary Nigerians are deserving of? The president said that, “PDP is the party to beat.” If this is true then I don’t know Nigerians; they must be truly a queer group.

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Leonard Karshima Shilgba is an Associate Professor of Mathematics with the American University of Nigeria (www.aun.edu.ng ) and chairman of the Middle Belt Alliance (www.middlebeltalliance.org )
TEL: +234 (0) 8055024356 EMAIL: shilgba@middlebeltalliance.org.

By Dr. Leonard K. Shilgba | Yola, Nigeria | Nov. 18, 2012 –

Section 162 of the Nigerian constitution requires a minimum of 13 per cent derivation for mineral resource producing states. Item 39 of the exclusive legislative list includes “Mines and minerals, including oil fields, oil mining, geological surveys and natural gas” in the list of engagements that Nigerian states cannot even contemplate. And because the Nigerian government focuses primarily on oil exploration and mining, and consequently the majority of foreign direct investments is in this area, the NOP states are being incrementally starved of necessary revenues while at the same time being abused, derided, and despised. If the Nigerian federal government had given the same attention it has done to the oil industry in the development of other mineral resources that are available in all states
of the federation, then there should have been a significant improvement in
developmental revenues for all states including the NOPS.

We then have a situation where the hands of states are tied and yet they are required to bathe themselves. Oil producing states in Nigeria receive hundreds of billions of naira from the federation account every quarter. Whereas one oil producing state receives more than 10 times what a NOP state receives, the NOP state is expected to provide for its citizens the infrastructure for development and growth that the oil states should be able to provide because of the revenues available to them. And I agree and have written copiously that Nigerian oil producing states deserve even more than they are receiving now. My problem is that the federal government, while retaining the exclusive powers on matters of harnessing our natural resources, has failed beyond oil, and even in the oil sector, it has
under-performed in the refining of crude oil, enforcing of environmental
standards (as required in sections 16 (1)(a) and 17 (2)(d)), and the development of our gas resources. I am more disturbed that even the little that the NOP states receive from the federation account is generally not prudently invested on behalf of their people. But my emphasis in this essay is not on the devastation of misappropriation of public funds by the Nigerian state governors and public officials. I seek to draw attention to the self-contrived restrictions that have been constitutionally placed before Nigeria’s federating states.

Free up the states

It is my firm belief that if items on the exclusive legislative list are not significantly pruned down, and the concurrent and residual lists are not so clearly defined in phrases that completely remove ambiguities and conflicts between state and federal legislatures we will not have economically viable states.

Lagos state once was the seat of the federal government, which now is the economic center of Nigeria. Historically, Lagos colony was a separate country from the nineteenth century until 1906 when it was merged with the Southern Protectorate, and then later became part of the 1914 unilateral amalgamation. The advantage of semi-autonomy makes Lagos to be the only NOP state with a large economy, having access to huge tax revenues, without any fallback on oil or oil-related revenues. The socio-economic arrangement of Nigeria does not help the federating states to express themselves, not least the NOPS. Even Lagos has had its share of
frustrations from the meddlesomeness or outright sabotage of the Nigerian
state.

The on-going constitution review efforts will remain just a mollifying elixir on our national conscience if the outcome is not the whittling down of the colossal powers of an incrementally incompetent federal government. Economically viable local and state governments must be the clear objective of the exercise. There are clearly different opinions on pathways to this objective. But I think there should be preponderance of support coalescing about the focal point of state economic independence. The most indicative of such independence is the freedom to legislate on many of those items on the exclusive legislative list. And what should be the test on determination of what those should be? A simple test should be any issue that does not jeopardize Nigeria’s social existence, or which does not affect egregiously the governance of another state, or which should not require more than one state legislating upon for ease of implementation of such resulting piece of legislation.

In a diverse society like Nigeria, diverse in ethnicity, religion, intellectual and social views and beliefs, it is impossible to frame a constitution that is perfectly acceptable to all. But if we work toward one objective—the freedom, economic freedom of the federating units, we shall be able to achieve other equally important objectives, including political equality. Strong state economies with abundant opportunities for all, encouraged by more leverage and latitude allowed states to explore, experiment, and implement ideas, visions, and dreams which are presently being stifled by constitutional impediments, not least being the exclusive legislative list, will ultimately reduce the perception of political offices as trophies won by individuals on behalf of the ethnic groups and religions to which they are affiliated. The shifting politics of zoning is unutterably predicated on this political philosophy of power conquest.

In conclusion, let me remind that the federal government cannot concurrently and sufficiently harness all the resources in this country without the constitution allowing state governments to get involved in exploiting and processing of those resources in their states. If the objective of any constitutional review efforts is not to empower states economically, then let it be known that weak states equal a weak nation.

Leonard Shilgba is an Associate Professor of Mathematics with the American University of Nigeria (www.aun.edu.ng ) and Chair of the Middle Belt Alliance (www.middlebeltalliance.org )

TEL: 08055024356;

Email: shilgba@middlebeltalliance.org

By Dr. Leonard K. Shilgba | Yola, Nigeria | Nov. 10, 2012 |

Since I was a young boy I have heard the idle affirmation of Nigerian rulers about “the need to diversify the economy.” But where is the will or the motivation? The will is not there in our rulers because there is no necessity; and there is no necessity while the black gold flows continually and customers are not lacking, who are willing to provide the soliloquizing pill to deaden any sensitivity towards the danger the country faces should it continue to rely heavily on one product as a major revenue source. I should think that Nigerians who know about the real and potent trials of the present lack of patriotic governance ought to ponder ways to bring about the right deeds of governance or force them.
The 2013 federal budget proposal that has already been presented to the national legislature by President Jonathan reveals three present problems with Nigeria: First, the amount of revenue Nigeria should legitimately expect next year is not fully covered in the proposal. Two, the federal government is still acting as though there is no urgency for increased capital votes for expenditure on infrastructural development, education for the future challenges of new technology, welfare programs such as
public housing in partnership with local governments (See the fourth schedule of the 1999 constitution which makes building and maintenance of houses for the poor and infirm mandatory for local councils), and on strategic partnership with state governments on projects and programs that will reduce unemployment.
Three, there is no evidence that the federal government is eager to cut down on big government by implementing the recommendations of the Orosanya’s committee it had set up, which include either complete scrapping of redundant departments and agencies or merging some of them that perform duplicate functions. The budget proposal is silent on shrinking of the size of government in any form or shape.

Let us take the average price for crude oil for 2012, which is about 100 US dollars per barrel. If we assume this average for 2013 also and the proposed crude oil production of about 2.5 million barrels a day in 2013, an income of 250 million US dollars a day for Nigeria and oil companies is expected. According to Dr. Ngozi Iweala, Nigeria’s Minister of Finance, 57 percent of crude oil money goes to Nigeria while the oil companies take 43 percent. This translates to about 52 billion US dollars for Nigeria or 8.1 trillion naira. If the revenue collected by the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) so far in 2012 is considered as a benchmark (FIRS announced tax revenues of 3.81 trillion naira by October 2012, with one more quarter to go) for 2013, we can safely conclude that the total estimated revenue available to Nigeria from crude oil sales and taxes collected by FIRS in 2013 is more than 12 trillion naira. But President Jonathan laid before Nigerians a budget proposal for 2013 with a declaration that estimated revenue
accruable to Nigeria in 2013 was only 10 trillion naira, out of which the
federal government’s share was about 3.9 trillion naira. I am concerned about the math here; it just does not add up! Secondly, the president was silent about revenue from Nigeria’s investment in gas (the NLNG project). Nigeria controls 49 percent of the NLNG project and produces about 10 percent of world’s gas production. Why has the Jonathan government kept the revenue from gas sales from its employers, the Nigerian people? This lack of transparency is not acceptable, and our legislators must ask those relevant questions. They must unearth revenues that the federal government keeps away from both the state and local governments. An insidious conspiracy of fudging figures is going on while Nigerians who know don’t talk and those who don’t know don’t ask.
Nigeria does not need and cannot afford a deficit of about 1 trillion naira
while insufficient information is given about the true size of Nigeria’s
expected revenue. Does Nigeria need a revenue crisis to reveal information about our genuine revenues that is kept from our prying eyes? We are told how 400,000 barrels of crude oil are stolen daily! Don’t we have government anymore, or are those figures spouted out just to hide
what is stolen by the kleptomaniacs in public office under some innocuous
headings? Most probably, it would not move relevant government officials to resign, and neither would they lose their jobs should that figure rise to even 1 million barrels a day in the near future. The secrecy about our nation’s revenues, which is continually being spun by the PDP government, has come to be accepted as a difficult mathematical open problem that no polymath is presently inclined to consider. We must consider this problem. We need to resolve this seeming puzzle.

Do you know that the federal government proposes only 1.5 trillion for capital expenditure in the 2013 budget? And do you know that 1.03 trillion naira is the deficit? What that means is that only about 500 billion naira out of the revenues of Nigeria will be spent on things that Nigeria needs to meet the Millennium Development Goals (MDG). If you don’t cringe then I wonder if you understand what I am talking about. Our legislators need to get experts to educate them about the futility of Mr. Jonathan’s budget proposal; how it lacks truthfulness, vision, rationality, and transparency. A revenue crisis may hit Nigeria very soon, and necessity shall be placed on Nigerians to choose leaders who have a heart for the people. We can’t afford anymore leaders who are never alarmed by their incompetence and lack of empathy for the people.

Leonard Shilgba is an Associate Professor of Mathematics with the
American University of Nigeria (www.aun.edu.ng ) and Chair of the Middle Belt Alliance (www.middlebeltalliance.org )

TEL: 08055024356; Email: shilgba@middlebeltalliance.org