Opinion: Should power return to the North in 2015?

Posted by admin Headlines, North-Central, North-East, North-West Wednesday, October 24th, 2012

By Bayo Olupohunda – The drumbeats of presidential politics among the major ethnic groups that have dominated political equation in the country are gathering momentum. The discordant tunes will reach a crescendo in the coming months as the country races another electoral cycle in the quest to elect the nation’s president in 2015. As it was in the past, the scheming and intrigues leading to the choice of the country’s number one citizen has often pitched the major ethnic groups against the others in a battle of wit, high drama and covert maneuvers among political players and kingmakers of the ruling parties.

Given the unexpected turn of political events that have emerged in the last three years which appear to have shattered the zoning formula with the election of President Goodluck Jonathan from the minority Ijaw in 2011, the stakes have become higher, the battle fiercer and the future unpredictable — but that is the nature of the “cliffhanger” politics Nigeria democracy has become. The fortuitous emergence of Jonathan as President in 2010 truncated the eight-year Northern slot which began in 2007 with the election of Umaru Yar’Adua (new late) as president. The death of Yar’Adua and the emergence of Jonathan in a landslide electoral win in 2011 angered the Northern establishment. At the time of Yar’Adua’s death, the North had made a case for the continuation for the Presidency to remain in the region by frustrating all efforts to have Jonathan sworn in as President. But the constitutional provision that made the then Vice- President assume the Presidency put paid to the North’s ambition.

The Presidential election of 2011 again presented another chance for the North to renew their agitation for the region to present a candidate to complete the second term of a Northern slot. Some Northern elders under the Arewa Consultative Forum threatened violence if a Northerner was not elected to complete an eight-year-zoned presidency. However, President Jonathan won the election but as predicted, the North erupted in an orgy of violence- ostensibly, a reaction to Gen. Muhammadu Buhari’s loss, a candidate, many in the North considered as their representative. The seed for future discord had already been sown. Will it manifest in 2015? Since the North’s loss of presidential power in 2011, the insecurity that has ravaged the country is believed by many to be the handwork of reactionary elements angered by the region’s perceived descent into the backwaters of Nigeria’s politics which they had dominated since independence.

There is a sense in which the violence that broke out after the 2011 presidential election seemed to be an indicator of the unpredictability of the politics that will play out in 2015 as the major ethnic groups strengthen their claim to the Presidency. Already, there are predictions by both local and international think-tanks that political infighting among the ethnic groups staking claims to the centre may signal the death knell to the Nigerian federation in 2015. The seed for future instability arising from the jostle for the Presidency was sown since independence. The schisms created by the major ethnic groups seeking to dominate politics at the centre have further driven a wedge into the chord that binds the country together. Having ruled the country for 36 years since independence, the North is seen by many Nigerians to have had its fair share in a country where the ethnic groups are as diverse as the population. But having stayed in power for that long, Northern leaders naturally consider the Presidency a birthright. Therein lies the problem. The rude awakening for the region came in 2011 when the country massively voted for a minority candidate thus ending the zoning formula since 1999- a move that also shattered the myth of North’s invincibility.

There are questions that need to be asked as the possibility of a stalemate confronts the nation in 2015. Should the Presidency be determined by the zoning formula in 2015? Should power return to the North or other ethnic groups in the spirit of zoning which had determined the Presidency of the country since 1999? Should we continue to benchmark the choice of a President on a subjective zoning formula that promotes mediocrity or should we as a country uphold merit as the sole determinant for leadership at all levels of governance? Does the ethnic background of a President matter? Some points need to be made here in defence of zoning; were zoning to be adopted as the determining factor in choosing a future President, what better right does the North have to stake a claim to the Presidency having governed the country since independence? Do they have a superior claim to the Presidency than other ethnic groups like the Igbo, for example?

Let’s even look at the issues critically and dispassionately. Which ethnic group in the country deserves to rule the country now and in future than the Igbo? Have they not sacrificed more to keep the nation united? Have they not suffered injustice more than other ethnic groups in the country? Years after a devastating civil war, the Igbo have had their kith and kin massacred in senseless orgies of religious violence that have engulfed the country in our recent past. Yet, they have not threatened to make Nigeria ungovernable. The point has to be stressed here that no region has the superior claim to the Presidency. It is also high time the North weaned itself of the “Presidency-at-all-cost or we-all-perish mentality”. There are many more ethnic groups in the country that can never assume the Presidency either because they are disadvantaged politically, in population and absence of mineral resources that can be used to bargain for the number one spot in the country.

That is why I fault the move by Northern leaders who have consistently threatened that the country would cease to exist if the region does not get the Presidency in the future. Rather than expend energy in a venture that has not brought development to the region, they should begin to hold their governors accountable for the region’s underdevelopment. The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Lamido Sanusi, echoed the danger of zoning recently. He condemned the advocates of power shift “for its sake”, saying it is irresponsible to frame elections on the basis of ethnicity. He frowned at the ways the political class in Nigeria leant on ethnicity and tribal sentiments to champion their political interests to the detriment of the growth of the economy and democracy. He also advocated for the ban of ethnic and socio-cultural associations. But not many politicians from his region will agree with this view.

As the country journeys into an unpredictable political future, what we need is a President who will see the entire country as his constituency. The political parties have a role to play in ensuring that an acceptable candidate with proven track record is presented for future elections. Zoning promotes mediocrity. It is the reason why the country has stagnated after 52 years of independence. But if the North insists, should the Presidency return to the region in 2015?

-Punchwp_posts